Israel and Lebanon extended their US-brokered ceasefire by 45 days on May 15, 2026, following productive talks in Washington that set the stage for further negotiations on June 2-3. The agreement addresses a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, prisoner releases, and reconstruction, yet Israel maintains troops in a self-declared security buffer zone several kilometers inside Lebanese territory to prevent Hezbollah rearmament. Recent airstrikes and displacement orders in southern Lebanon have heightened skepticism about rapid progress. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation talks and the scheduled end of the UNIFIL mandate in December 2026 add further diplomatic pressure, while both sides weigh security guarantees against enforcement challenges from non-state actors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
$1,543,294 Vol.
30 jun 2026
31 de mayo
1%
30 de junio
7%
$1,543,294 Vol.
31 de mayo
$1,237,290 Vol.
1%
30 de junio
$230,998 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon extended their US-brokered ceasefire by 45 days on May 15, 2026, following productive talks in Washington that set the stage for further negotiations on June 2-3. The agreement addresses a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, prisoner releases, and reconstruction, yet Israel maintains troops in a self-declared security buffer zone several kilometers inside Lebanese territory to prevent Hezbollah rearmament. Recent airstrikes and displacement orders in southern Lebanon have heightened skepticism about rapid progress. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation talks and the scheduled end of the UNIFIL mandate in December 2026 add further diplomatic pressure, while both sides weigh security guarantees against enforcement challenges from non-state actors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$1,543,294Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon extended their US-brokered ceasefire by 45 days on May 15, 2026, following productive talks in Washington that set the stage for further negotiations on June 2-3. The agreement addresses a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, prisoner releases, and reconstruction, yet Israel maintains troops in a self-declared security buffer zone several kilometers inside Lebanese territory to prevent Hezbollah rearmament. Recent airstrikes and displacement orders in southern Lebanon have heightened skepticism about rapid progress. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation talks and the scheduled end of the UNIFIL mandate in December 2026 add further diplomatic pressure, while both sides weigh security guarantees against enforcement challenges from non-state actors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$1,543,294Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel and Lebanon extended their US-brokered ceasefire by 45 days on May 15, 2026, following productive talks in Washington that set the stage for further negotiations on June 2-3. The agreement addresses a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, prisoner releases, and reconstruction, yet Israel maintains troops in a self-declared security buffer zone several kilometers inside Lebanese territory to prevent Hezbollah rearmament. Recent airstrikes and displacement orders in southern Lebanon have heightened skepticism about rapid progress. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation talks and the scheduled end of the UNIFIL mandate in December 2026 add further diplomatic pressure, while both sides weigh security guarantees against enforcement challenges from non-state actors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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