**The market reflects trader consensus on low posting volume from Khamenei-affiliated X accounts during the August 14–21, 2026 window, with <5 posts at 66.5% and 5–9 at 23.5%.** Ali Khamenei’s verified account (@khamenei_ir) now functions as a repository for the late Supreme Leader’s historical statements and quotes, with activity limited to occasional archival posts rather than daily updates. Mojtaba Khamenei’s newer official account (@MKhamenei_ir), established after his succession in early 2026, has focused on sporadic official announcements such as IRGC appointments, with its most recent posts occurring on August 10. Neither account has shown consistent daily output in recent weeks, consistent with patterns of measured institutional communication from Iranian leadership accounts. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic events in the immediate lead-up to or during the resolution period have prompted increased posting. Higher outcome buckets remain thinly traded, as sustained high-volume activity would require an atypical shift in communication strategy amid ongoing regional tensions. Resolution depends on verifiable posts from the primary tracked accounts within the exact seven-day window.