Trader consensus heavily favors no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the statistical rarity of such events, which occur on average only once every 50–100 years based on Holocene records compiled by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. With just three confirmed VEI 6+ eruptions since 1800—most recently Pinatubo in 1991—current global monitoring shows no caldera systems exhibiting the sustained inflation, seismic swarms, or degassing patterns that historically precede these explosive events. Continuous surveillance by the USGS Volcano Hazards Program and international networks continues to report only moderate activity at candidates like Yellowstone or Taupo, keeping implied odds of “no” near 91.5 percent. While sudden unrest could develop, resolution hinges on whether any single eruption reaches the VEI 6 threshold of roughly 10 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta by year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Erupción volcánica mayor (VEI ≥6) en 2026?
¿Erupción volcánica mayor (VEI ≥6) en 2026?
Sí
$80,401 Vol.
$80,401 Vol.
31 mar 2027
Sí
$80,401 Vol.
$80,401 Vol.
31 mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the statistical rarity of such events, which occur on average only once every 50–100 years based on Holocene records compiled by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. With just three confirmed VEI 6+ eruptions since 1800—most recently Pinatubo in 1991—current global monitoring shows no caldera systems exhibiting the sustained inflation, seismic swarms, or degassing patterns that historically precede these explosive events. Continuous surveillance by the USGS Volcano Hazards Program and international networks continues to report only moderate activity at candidates like Yellowstone or Taupo, keeping implied odds of “no” near 91.5 percent. While sudden unrest could develop, resolution hinges on whether any single eruption reaches the VEI 6 threshold of roughly 10 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$80,401Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the statistical rarity of such events, which occur on average only once every 50–100 years based on Holocene records compiled by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. With just three confirmed VEI 6+ eruptions since 1800—most recently Pinatubo in 1991—current global monitoring shows no caldera systems exhibiting the sustained inflation, seismic swarms, or degassing patterns that historically precede these explosive events. Continuous surveillance by the USGS Volcano Hazards Program and international networks continues to report only moderate activity at candidates like Yellowstone or Taupo, keeping implied odds of “no” near 91.5 percent. While sudden unrest could develop, resolution hinges on whether any single eruption reaches the VEI 6 threshold of roughly 10 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$80,401Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the statistical rarity of such events, which occur on average only once every 50–100 years based on Holocene records compiled by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. With just three confirmed VEI 6+ eruptions since 1800—most recently Pinatubo in 1991—current global monitoring shows no caldera systems exhibiting the sustained inflation, seismic swarms, or degassing patterns that historically precede these explosive events. Continuous surveillance by the USGS Volcano Hazards Program and international networks continues to report only moderate activity at candidates like Yellowstone or Taupo, keeping implied odds of “no” near 91.5 percent. While sudden unrest could develop, resolution hinges on whether any single eruption reaches the VEI 6 threshold of roughly 10 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta by year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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