The anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions by May–July 2026, as indicated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and WMO seasonal outlooks, stands as the dominant factor aligning trader consensus with the 1.10–1.14 °C range at 59.5% implied probability. This natural oscillation releases stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere, typically adding 0.1–0.2 °C to global surface temperatures on top of the long-term anthropogenic trend that has already placed April 2026 at 1.43 °C above pre-industrial levels. Recent multi-model ensembles show rapid warming of Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures, supporting elevated May anomalies while leaving room for variability in exact peak strength. Updated forecasts and early-month observational data from agencies such as Copernicus and NCEI will provide the next key inputs for refining these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 60%
1.15–1.19ºC 16%
<1.10ºC 16%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,978 Vol.
$58,978 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
16%
1.10–1.14ºC
60%
1.15–1.19ºC
16%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 60%
1.15–1.19ºC 16%
<1.10ºC 16%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,978 Vol.
$58,978 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$24,002 Vol.
16%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 Vol.
60%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,833 Vol.
16%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,460 Vol.
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions by May–July 2026, as indicated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and WMO seasonal outlooks, stands as the dominant factor aligning trader consensus with the 1.10–1.14 °C range at 59.5% implied probability. This natural oscillation releases stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere, typically adding 0.1–0.2 °C to global surface temperatures on top of the long-term anthropogenic trend that has already placed April 2026 at 1.43 °C above pre-industrial levels. Recent multi-model ensembles show rapid warming of Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures, supporting elevated May anomalies while leaving room for variability in exact peak strength. Updated forecasts and early-month observational data from agencies such as Copernicus and NCEI will provide the next key inputs for refining these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volumen
$58,978Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions by May–July 2026, as indicated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and WMO seasonal outlooks, stands as the dominant factor aligning trader consensus with the 1.10–1.14 °C range at 59.5% implied probability. This natural oscillation releases stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere, typically adding 0.1–0.2 °C to global surface temperatures on top of the long-term anthropogenic trend that has already placed April 2026 at 1.43 °C above pre-industrial levels. Recent multi-model ensembles show rapid warming of Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures, supporting elevated May anomalies while leaving room for variability in exact peak strength. Updated forecasts and early-month observational data from agencies such as Copernicus and NCEI will provide the next key inputs for refining these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$58,978Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions by May–July 2026, as indicated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and WMO seasonal outlooks, stands as the dominant factor aligning trader consensus with the 1.10–1.14 °C range at 59.5% implied probability. This natural oscillation releases stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere, typically adding 0.1–0.2 °C to global surface temperatures on top of the long-term anthropogenic trend that has already placed April 2026 at 1.43 °C above pre-industrial levels. Recent multi-model ensembles show rapid warming of Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures, supporting elevated May anomalies while leaving room for variability in exact peak strength. Updated forecasts and early-month observational data from agencies such as Copernicus and NCEI will provide the next key inputs for refining these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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