**Recent supply recovery following highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks has driven egg prices sharply lower, positioning the August 2026 average retail price near the $2.10–$2.40 range where market-implied probabilities cluster most tightly.** USDA data show retail egg prices falling 27.9% year-over-year by June 2026 and projected to decline roughly 30% for the full year, while farm-level prices have dropped even more steeply amid expanded layer flocks reaching over 300 million hens. Wholesale prices have settled around $0.60–$1.25 per dozen as production rebounds faster than demand, with fewer HPAI detections early in 2026 enabling aggressive restocking and offsetting isolated losses. This oversupply dynamic—amplified by prior flock rebuilding after 2024–2025 culls and softer post-holiday consumption—creates competitive tension between the three leading bins ($2.10–$2.20 at 31%, $2.20–$2.30 at 27.3%, $2.30–$2.40 at 24.5%). Traders weigh the risk of modest seasonal or regional upticks against the broader deflationary pressure from elevated inventories and stable feed costs. Key near-term differentiators include any late-summer HPAI developments, BLS monthly retail price releases, and shifts in consumer demand or import volumes, which could tip resolution toward the upper or lower end of the contested zone while keeping outcomes outside $2.00–$2.50 at low implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$2.20–$2.30 28.5%
$2.30–$2.40 25%
$2.10–$2.20 21.0%
$2.40–$2.50 12%
Menos de $1.80
1%
$1.80–$1.90
1%
$1.90–$2.00
5%
$2.00–$2.10
4%
$2.10–$2.20
32%
$2.20–$2.30
29%
$2.30–$2.40
25%
$2.40–$2.50
14%
$2.50–$2.60
2%
≥$2.60
1%
$2.20–$2.30 28.5%
$2.30–$2.40 25%
$2.10–$2.20 21.0%
$2.40–$2.50 12%
Menos de $1.80
1%
$1.80–$1.90
1%
$1.90–$2.00
5%
$2.00–$2.10
4%
$2.10–$2.20
32%
$2.20–$2.30
29%
$2.30–$2.40
25%
$2.40–$2.50
14%
$2.50–$2.60
2%
≥$2.60
1%
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The August release is presently scheduled for September 11, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The August release is presently scheduled for September 11, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent supply recovery following highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks has driven egg prices sharply lower, positioning the August 2026 average retail price near the $2.10–$2.40 range where market-implied probabilities cluster most tightly.** USDA data show retail egg prices falling 27.9% year-over-year by June 2026 and projected to decline roughly 30% for the full year, while farm-level prices have dropped even more steeply amid expanded layer flocks reaching over 300 million hens. Wholesale prices have settled around $0.60–$1.25 per dozen as production rebounds faster than demand, with fewer HPAI detections early in 2026 enabling aggressive restocking and offsetting isolated losses. This oversupply dynamic—amplified by prior flock rebuilding after 2024–2025 culls and softer post-holiday consumption—creates competitive tension between the three leading bins ($2.10–$2.20 at 31%, $2.20–$2.30 at 27.3%, $2.30–$2.40 at 24.5%). Traders weigh the risk of modest seasonal or regional upticks against the broader deflationary pressure from elevated inventories and stable feed costs. Key near-term differentiators include any late-summer HPAI developments, BLS monthly retail price releases, and shifts in consumer demand or import volumes, which could tip resolution toward the upper or lower end of the contested zone while keeping outcomes outside $2.00–$2.50 at low implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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