Skip to main content

Para operar en EE. UU., ve a polymarket.us

icon for ¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?
Política·Putin

¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?

icon for ¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?
Política·Putin

¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?

$6,231,545 Vol.

30 sep 2026
Polymarket

$6,231,545 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de septiembre de 2026

$159,388 Vol.

1%

31 de diciembre de 2026

$120,130 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains its de facto moratorium on explosive nuclear tests despite de-ratifying the CTBT in 2023 and the February 2026 expiration of New START, with trader consensus assigning low probability to a full-yield detonation by late 2026. Moscow continues non-explosive modernization through ICBM launches such as the May 2026 Sarmat success, canceled Avangard preparations in September, Poseidon torpedo trials including a claimed October 2025 reactor activation and a recent scrubbed Belgorod attempt, and routine strategic force exercises simulating nuclear authorization. Activity at the Novaya Zemlya site draws ongoing scrutiny, yet no credible reports confirm a fission or fusion chain-reaction test. These developments reinforce the view that Russia favors signaling and conventional missile advances over resuming explosive testing amid sanctions constraints and escalation risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,231,545
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains its de facto moratorium on explosive nuclear tests despite de-ratifying the CTBT in 2023 and the February 2026 expiration of New START, with trader consensus assigning low probability to a full-yield detonation by late 2026. Moscow continues non-explosive modernization through ICBM launches such as the May 2026 Sarmat success, canceled Avangard preparations in September, Poseidon torpedo trials including a claimed October 2025 reactor activation and a recent scrubbed Belgorod attempt, and routine strategic force exercises simulating nuclear authorization. Activity at the Novaya Zemlya site draws ongoing scrutiny, yet no credible reports confirm a fission or fusion chain-reaction test. These developments reinforce the view that Russia favors signaling and conventional missile advances over resuming explosive testing amid sanctions constraints and escalation risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,231,545
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Relacionado

icon for ¿Realizarán los EE. UU. una prueba nuclear antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

¿Realizarán los EE. UU. una prueba nuclear antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

5%
Sí
icon for ¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?

¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?

5%
Sí
icon for Russia coup attempt in 2026?

Russia coup attempt in 2026?

6%

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre de 2026" con 5%, seguido de "30 de septiembre de 2026" con 1%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 5¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 5% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?" ha generado $6.2 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?" es "31 de diciembre de 2026" con solo 5%, con "30 de septiembre de 2026" muy cerca con 1%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Prueba nuclear de Rusia por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.