Traders assign a 98.7% probability against any renaming of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, driven by the complete absence of official announcements, executive orders, or diplomatic statements from the administration on altering this key international waterway. Current foreign policy priorities center on sanctions, trade negotiations, and regional security rather than geographic nomenclature changes, with no legislative or agency actions underway to support such a step. International recognition of straits typically requires multilateral coordination through bodies like the UN or affected states, creating structural barriers to unilateral action. The brief remaining timeline further reinforces consensus. An unexpected directive or symbolic gesture could still emerge before the deadline, though no comparable precedents exist for major maritime features.