**Traders assign a 90% probability against U.S. enactment of a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027 because federal legislative efforts remain stalled in early stages despite multiple bipartisan proposals.** As of August 2026, the Trump administration’s National AI Legislative Framework and related executive actions prioritize innovation, exports, and preemption of conflicting state rules over mandatory frontier-model restrictions, audits, or incident-reporting mandates with enforcement teeth. House Science Committee markups have advanced narrower measures on research, labeling, and NIST codification, while broader drafts such as the Obernolte-Trahan FRONTIER Act and Warner’s agenda have not cleared committees or reached floor votes. Partisan differences over preemption scope, regulatory reach, and competing priorities—including midterms and infrastructure—continue to limit momentum, leaving states to fill the gap with their own safety measures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
10% probabilidad
$101,790 Vol.
$101,790 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
10% probabilidad
$101,790 Vol.
$101,790 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Traders assign a 90% probability against U.S. enactment of a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027 because federal legislative efforts remain stalled in early stages despite multiple bipartisan proposals.** As of August 2026, the Trump administration’s National AI Legislative Framework and related executive actions prioritize innovation, exports, and preemption of conflicting state rules over mandatory frontier-model restrictions, audits, or incident-reporting mandates with enforcement teeth. House Science Committee markups have advanced narrower measures on research, labeling, and NIST codification, while broader drafts such as the Obernolte-Trahan FRONTIER Act and Warner’s agenda have not cleared committees or reached floor votes. Partisan differences over preemption scope, regulatory reach, and competing priorities—including midterms and infrastructure—continue to limit momentum, leaving states to fill the gap with their own safety measures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volumen
$101,790Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Traders assign a 90% probability against U.S. enactment of a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027 because federal legislative efforts remain stalled in early stages despite multiple bipartisan proposals.** As of August 2026, the Trump administration’s National AI Legislative Framework and related executive actions prioritize innovation, exports, and preemption of conflicting state rules over mandatory frontier-model restrictions, audits, or incident-reporting mandates with enforcement teeth. House Science Committee markups have advanced narrower measures on research, labeling, and NIST codification, while broader drafts such as the Obernolte-Trahan FRONTIER Act and Warner’s agenda have not cleared committees or reached floor votes. Partisan differences over preemption scope, regulatory reach, and competing priorities—including midterms and infrastructure—continue to limit momentum, leaving states to fill the gap with their own safety measures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$101,790Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 90% probability against U.S. enactment of a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027 because federal legislative efforts remain stalled in early stages despite multiple bipartisan proposals.** As of August 2026, the Trump administration’s National AI Legislative Framework and related executive actions prioritize innovation, exports, and preemption of conflicting state rules over mandatory frontier-model restrictions, audits, or incident-reporting mandates with enforcement teeth. House Science Committee markups have advanced narrower measures on research, labeling, and NIST codification, while broader drafts such as the Obernolte-Trahan FRONTIER Act and Warner’s agenda have not cleared committees or reached floor votes. Partisan differences over preemption scope, regulatory reach, and competing priorities—including midterms and infrastructure—continue to limit momentum, leaving states to fill the gap with their own safety measures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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