Iran's theocratic legal system, grounded in Islamic jurisprudence and enforced through the constitution, Guardian Council, and Supreme Leader oversight, maintains strict prohibitions on same-sex relations and marriage, creating formidable structural barriers to any policy shift on LGBTQ rights. This framework has shown continuity across administrations, with no legislative or executive actions indicating movement toward legalization. Traders reflect this reality in the overwhelming consensus against near-term change. Even modest reforms would require unprecedented constitutional amendments or shifts in clerical consensus, both of which face entrenched institutional resistance. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major regime transition, sustained domestic upheaval, or fundamental reinterpretation of religious edicts by senior authorities, though such developments remain distant and speculative within typical resolution timelines.