Strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently exceeding +2.0°C and forecasts for a historically intense event this fall and winter, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating August 2026 global surface temperatures. July 2026 tied for the second-warmest July on record at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, consistent with the multi-year warming trend and lagged ENSO influence on atmospheric temperatures. Preliminary NOAA and NASA data through mid-to-late August show anomalies tracking near 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, though final monthly values depend on the last week’s observations, dataset revisions, and processing differences across agencies. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 1.38–1.45°C because model spreads and day-to-day variability create genuine uncertainty within that narrow band, while the long-term anthropogenic baseline keeps sub-1.30°C outcomes highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 37%
1.42–1.45ºC 34%
>1.45ºC 16%
1.34–1.37ºC 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
3%
1.30–1.33ºC
3%
1.34–1.37ºC
8%
1.38–1.41ºC
34%
1.42–1.45ºC
42%
>1.45ºC
16%
1.38–1.41ºC 37%
1.42–1.45ºC 34%
>1.45ºC 16%
1.34–1.37ºC 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$51 Vol.
3%
1.30–1.33ºC
$605 Vol.
3%
1.34–1.37ºC
$1,479 Vol.
8%
1.38–1.41ºC
$215 Vol.
34%
1.42–1.45ºC
$726 Vol.
42%
>1.45ºC
$256 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently exceeding +2.0°C and forecasts for a historically intense event this fall and winter, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating August 2026 global surface temperatures. July 2026 tied for the second-warmest July on record at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, consistent with the multi-year warming trend and lagged ENSO influence on atmospheric temperatures. Preliminary NOAA and NASA data through mid-to-late August show anomalies tracking near 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, though final monthly values depend on the last week’s observations, dataset revisions, and processing differences across agencies. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 1.38–1.45°C because model spreads and day-to-day variability create genuine uncertainty within that narrow band, while the long-term anthropogenic baseline keeps sub-1.30°C outcomes highly improbable.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$3,331End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently exceeding +2.0°C and forecasts for a historically intense event this fall and winter, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating August 2026 global surface temperatures. July 2026 tied for the second-warmest July on record at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, consistent with the multi-year warming trend and lagged ENSO influence on atmospheric temperatures. Preliminary NOAA and NASA data through mid-to-late August show anomalies tracking near 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, though final monthly values depend on the last week’s observations, dataset revisions, and processing differences across agencies. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 1.38–1.45°C because model spreads and day-to-day variability create genuine uncertainty within that narrow band, while the long-term anthropogenic baseline keeps sub-1.30°C outcomes highly improbable.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$3,331End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently exceeding +2.0°C and forecasts for a historically intense event this fall and winter, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating August 2026 global surface temperatures. July 2026 tied for the second-warmest July on record at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, consistent with the multi-year warming trend and lagged ENSO influence on atmospheric temperatures. Preliminary NOAA and NASA data through mid-to-late August show anomalies tracking near 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, though final monthly values depend on the last week’s observations, dataset revisions, and processing differences across agencies. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 1.38–1.45°C because model spreads and day-to-day variability create genuine uncertainty within that narrow band, while the long-term anthropogenic baseline keeps sub-1.30°C outcomes highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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