China’s July 2026 CPI print of 0.5% year-over-year, well below expectations and the prior month’s 1.0%, has shaped trader positioning for the August reading. Weak domestic demand, persistent food-price declines, and softer non-food and energy components drove the outcome, alongside a cooler producer-price index. Markets assign the highest probability to a modest rebound into the 0.7–0.8% band, consistent with seasonal patterns and historical mean reversion after sharp monthly drops. Continued tepid consumption and external price pressures remain key variables that could keep the print closer to July’s level or push it lower, with resolution expected following the National Bureau of Statistics release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.7% - 0.8% 41%
0.5% - 0.6% 23%
0.3% - 0.4% 17.7%
≤0.2% 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
≤0.2%
18%
0.3% - 0.4%
26%
0.5% - 0.6%
19%
0.7% - 0.8%
41%
0.9%+
5%
0.7% - 0.8% 41%
0.5% - 0.6% 23%
0.3% - 0.4% 17.7%
≤0.2% 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
≤0.2%
$141 Vol.
18%
0.3% - 0.4%
$245 Vol.
26%
0.5% - 0.6%
$2,138 Vol.
19%
0.7% - 0.8%
$1,604 Vol.
41%
0.9%+
$143 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending August 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/China’s July 2026 CPI print of 0.5% year-over-year, well below expectations and the prior month’s 1.0%, has shaped trader positioning for the August reading. Weak domestic demand, persistent food-price declines, and softer non-food and energy components drove the outcome, alongside a cooler producer-price index. Markets assign the highest probability to a modest rebound into the 0.7–0.8% band, consistent with seasonal patterns and historical mean reversion after sharp monthly drops. Continued tepid consumption and external price pressures remain key variables that could keep the print closer to July’s level or push it lower, with resolution expected following the National Bureau of Statistics release.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending August 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 4:28 PM ET
Volume
$4,271End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 4:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending August 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/China’s July 2026 CPI print of 0.5% year-over-year, well below expectations and the prior month’s 1.0%, has shaped trader positioning for the August reading. Weak domestic demand, persistent food-price declines, and softer non-food and energy components drove the outcome, alongside a cooler producer-price index. Markets assign the highest probability to a modest rebound into the 0.7–0.8% band, consistent with seasonal patterns and historical mean reversion after sharp monthly drops. Continued tepid consumption and external price pressures remain key variables that could keep the print closer to July’s level or push it lower, with resolution expected following the National Bureau of Statistics release.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending August 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Volume
$4,271End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 4:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s July 2026 CPI print of 0.5% year-over-year, well below expectations and the prior month’s 1.0%, has shaped trader positioning for the August reading. Weak domestic demand, persistent food-price declines, and softer non-food and energy components drove the outcome, alongside a cooler producer-price index. Markets assign the highest probability to a modest rebound into the 0.7–0.8% band, consistent with seasonal patterns and historical mean reversion after sharp monthly drops. Continued tepid consumption and external price pressures remain key variables that could keep the print closer to July’s level or push it lower, with resolution expected following the National Bureau of Statistics release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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