Recent hawkish signals from Bank of Korea officials have lifted the market-implied probability of a rate increase at the July 2026 meeting to 41.5 percent while anchoring no change as the leading outcome at 56.0 percent. Senior Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai stated in early May that growth is unlikely to fall much below the 2.0 percent forecast and inflation is tracking above the prior 2.2 percent projection, shifting forward guidance toward potential tightening after seven consecutive holds at the 2.50 percent base rate. April’s unanimous decision to stay put amid Middle East geopolitical risks and oil-driven price pressures has kept traders focused on data-dependent outcomes. Robust semiconductor exports continue to support activity and temper downside growth risks, leaving inflation as the dominant swing factor ahead of the May 28 meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Korea decision in July?
No Change 55%
Increase 44%
Decrease 1.4%
$13,396 Vol.
$13,396 Vol.
Decrease
1%
No Change
55%
Increase
44%
No Change 55%
Increase 44%
Decrease 1.4%
$13,396 Vol.
$13,396 Vol.
Decrease
1%
No Change
55%
Increase
44%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its July 16, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their July 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its July 16, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their July 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hawkish signals from Bank of Korea officials have lifted the market-implied probability of a rate increase at the July 2026 meeting to 41.5 percent while anchoring no change as the leading outcome at 56.0 percent. Senior Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai stated in early May that growth is unlikely to fall much below the 2.0 percent forecast and inflation is tracking above the prior 2.2 percent projection, shifting forward guidance toward potential tightening after seven consecutive holds at the 2.50 percent base rate. April’s unanimous decision to stay put amid Middle East geopolitical risks and oil-driven price pressures has kept traders focused on data-dependent outcomes. Robust semiconductor exports continue to support activity and temper downside growth risks, leaving inflation as the dominant swing factor ahead of the May 28 meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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