Yoon Suk-yeol remains in detention at the Seoul Detention Center following his February 2026 life sentence for insurrection tied to the 2024 martial law declaration, with the Supreme Court upholding a separate seven-year term in July 2026 that is now final. Additional lower-court convictions, including a 30-year term handed down in June 2026 over related charges, have extended his legal exposure across multiple proceedings. South Korea's appeals process for high-profile cases involving rebellion and official misconduct routinely spans many months or years, and no parole or early-release mechanisms appear imminent for these sentences. Traders price "No" at 94.8% because the combination of confirmed convictions, final appellate rulings, and ongoing trials creates substantial structural barriers to release before the 2027 cutoff, even accounting for potential future appeals or procedural delays.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedYoon out of custody before 2027?
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
5% chance
$178,994 Vol.
$178,994 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$178,994 Vol.
$178,994 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Yoon Suk-yeol remains in detention at the Seoul Detention Center following his February 2026 life sentence for insurrection tied to the 2024 martial law declaration, with the Supreme Court upholding a separate seven-year term in July 2026 that is now final. Additional lower-court convictions, including a 30-year term handed down in June 2026 over related charges, have extended his legal exposure across multiple proceedings. South Korea's appeals process for high-profile cases involving rebellion and official misconduct routinely spans many months or years, and no parole or early-release mechanisms appear imminent for these sentences. Traders price "No" at 94.8% because the combination of confirmed convictions, final appellate rulings, and ongoing trials creates substantial structural barriers to release before the 2027 cutoff, even accounting for potential future appeals or procedural delays.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ET
Volume
$178,994End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Yoon Suk-yeol remains in detention at the Seoul Detention Center following his February 2026 life sentence for insurrection tied to the 2024 martial law declaration, with the Supreme Court upholding a separate seven-year term in July 2026 that is now final. Additional lower-court convictions, including a 30-year term handed down in June 2026 over related charges, have extended his legal exposure across multiple proceedings. South Korea's appeals process for high-profile cases involving rebellion and official misconduct routinely spans many months or years, and no parole or early-release mechanisms appear imminent for these sentences. Traders price "No" at 94.8% because the combination of confirmed convictions, final appellate rulings, and ongoing trials creates substantial structural barriers to release before the 2027 cutoff, even accounting for potential future appeals or procedural delays.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$178,994End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Yoon Suk-yeol remains in detention at the Seoul Detention Center following his February 2026 life sentence for insurrection tied to the 2024 martial law declaration, with the Supreme Court upholding a separate seven-year term in July 2026 that is now final. Additional lower-court convictions, including a 30-year term handed down in June 2026 over related charges, have extended his legal exposure across multiple proceedings. South Korea's appeals process for high-profile cases involving rebellion and official misconduct routinely spans many months or years, and no parole or early-release mechanisms appear imminent for these sentences. Traders price "No" at 94.8% because the combination of confirmed convictions, final appellate rulings, and ongoing trials creates substantial structural barriers to release before the 2027 cutoff, even accounting for potential future appeals or procedural delays.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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