The contest for second place in the April 2027 French presidential first round stays closely contested because polling averages place Jean-Luc Mélenchon narrowly ahead of Édouard Philippe, with Raphaël Glucksmann and other centrists close behind Marine Le Pen’s dominant lead. Recent nationwide protests have lifted Mélenchon’s support by consolidating far-left voters, while centrist infighting between Philippe and Gabriel Attal has fragmented moderate backing and raised the chance of a Le Pen-Mélenchon runoff. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Mélenchon the highest implied probability for second, yet the margin remains narrow enough that further candidate withdrawals, primary outcomes, or economic developments through early 2027 could reorder the field before ballots are cast.