Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP release, scheduled for September 1, shows trader consensus centered on 0.3%–0.5% QoQ growth at an implied 52.9% probability. This reflects moderation from Q1’s 1.1% expansion, driven by higher inflation eroding real incomes, a pullback in fixed investment from unsustainably strong levels, and fading fiscal stimulus. Restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on consumption and investment, while monthly activity indicators slowed in April–May. Offsetting factors include resilient exports, particularly soybeans, supporting the baseline forecast around 0.3%. Markets price in these dynamics as the primary catalyst ahead of the IBGE print.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3%–0.5% 53.0%
0.0%–0.2% 22.6%
0.6%–0.8% 17.1%
0.9%–1.1% 10.1%
$45,486 Vol.
$45,486 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
1%
0.0%–0.2%
23%
0.3%–0.5%
53%
0.6%–0.8%
17%
0.9%–1.1%
10%
1.2%–1.4%
<1%
≥1.5%
<1%
0.3%–0.5% 53.0%
0.0%–0.2% 22.6%
0.6%–0.8% 17.1%
0.9%–1.1% 10.1%
$45,486 Vol.
$45,486 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
$1,094 Vol.
1%
0.0%–0.2%
$3,404 Vol.
23%
0.3%–0.5%
$16,554 Vol.
53%
0.6%–0.8%
$14,748 Vol.
17%
0.9%–1.1%
$6,075 Vol.
10%
1.2%–1.4%
$2,775 Vol.
<1%
≥1.5%
$836 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q2 2026 GDP release, scheduled for September 1, shows trader consensus centered on 0.3%–0.5% QoQ growth at an implied 52.9% probability. This reflects moderation from Q1’s 1.1% expansion, driven by higher inflation eroding real incomes, a pullback in fixed investment from unsustainably strong levels, and fading fiscal stimulus. Restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on consumption and investment, while monthly activity indicators slowed in April–May. Offsetting factors include resilient exports, particularly soybeans, supporting the baseline forecast around 0.3%. Markets price in these dynamics as the primary catalyst ahead of the IBGE print.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$45,486End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q2 2026 GDP release, scheduled for September 1, shows trader consensus centered on 0.3%–0.5% QoQ growth at an implied 52.9% probability. This reflects moderation from Q1’s 1.1% expansion, driven by higher inflation eroding real incomes, a pullback in fixed investment from unsustainably strong levels, and fading fiscal stimulus. Restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on consumption and investment, while monthly activity indicators slowed in April–May. Offsetting factors include resilient exports, particularly soybeans, supporting the baseline forecast around 0.3%. Markets price in these dynamics as the primary catalyst ahead of the IBGE print.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$45,486End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP release, scheduled for September 1, shows trader consensus centered on 0.3%–0.5% QoQ growth at an implied 52.9% probability. This reflects moderation from Q1’s 1.1% expansion, driven by higher inflation eroding real incomes, a pullback in fixed investment from unsustainably strong levels, and fading fiscal stimulus. Restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on consumption and investment, while monthly activity indicators slowed in April–May. Offsetting factors include resilient exports, particularly soybeans, supporting the baseline forecast around 0.3%. Markets price in these dynamics as the primary catalyst ahead of the IBGE print.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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