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Economy·GDP

Canada GDP: June 2026 (MoM)

icon for Canada GDP: June 2026 (MoM)
Economy·GDP

Canada GDP: June 2026 (MoM)

Aug 28

Aug 28

0.2-0.3% 45%

0.0-0.1% 42%

0.4-0.5% 42%

0.6-0.7% 37%

Polymarket
NEW

0.2-0.3% 45%

0.0-0.1% 42%

0.4-0.5% 42%

0.6-0.7% 37%

Polymarket
NEW

<0.0%

$35 Vol.

16%

0.0-0.1%

$0 Vol.

42%

0.2-0.3%

$0 Vol.

45%

0.4-0.5%

$0 Vol.

42%

0.6-0.7%

$0 Vol.

37%

0.8%+

$0 Vol.

34%

This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending June 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for June 2026, scheduled for release on August 28, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.Recent Canada GDP data reflect a subdued monthly expansion amid broader economic headwinds, with market-implied odds clustering tightly around minimal positive growth. Preliminary Statistics Canada figures and early estimates point to June MoM output near 0.1-0.2%, supported by gains in retail, wholesale, finance, and real estate that offset contractions in manufacturing, utilities, and agriculture. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions provided a lift to resource sectors, yet U.S. tariff uncertainty and reduced government spending weighed on investment and net exports. The Bank of Canada's July 2026 Monetary Policy Report downgraded full-year growth projections, underscoring persistent trade frictions and softer domestic demand following a weak first quarter. Traders appear to price in these mixed signals, with the narrow spread between the 0.0-0.1% and 0.2-0.3% ranges highlighting sensitivity to final revisions and upcoming labor or inflation releases.

This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending June 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for June 2026, scheduled for release on August 28, 2026.

The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm

If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
Volume
$35
End Date
Aug 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending June 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for June 2026, scheduled for release on August 28, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending June 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for June 2026, scheduled for release on August 28, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.Recent Canada GDP data reflect a subdued monthly expansion amid broader economic headwinds, with market-implied odds clustering tightly around minimal positive growth. Preliminary Statistics Canada figures and early estimates point to June MoM output near 0.1-0.2%, supported by gains in retail, wholesale, finance, and real estate that offset contractions in manufacturing, utilities, and agriculture. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions provided a lift to resource sectors, yet U.S. tariff uncertainty and reduced government spending weighed on investment and net exports. The Bank of Canada's July 2026 Monetary Policy Report downgraded full-year growth projections, underscoring persistent trade frictions and softer domestic demand following a weak first quarter. Traders appear to price in these mixed signals, with the narrow spread between the 0.0-0.1% and 0.2-0.3% ranges highlighting sensitivity to final revisions and upcoming labor or inflation releases.

This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending June 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for June 2026, scheduled for release on August 28, 2026.

The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm

If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.
Volume
$35
End Date
Aug 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending June 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for June 2026, scheduled for release on August 28, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Canada GDP: June 2026 (MoM)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0.2-0.3%" at 45%, followed by "0.0-0.1%" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Canada GDP: June 2026 (MoM)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Canada GDP: June 2026 (MoM)," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Canada GDP: June 2026 (MoM)" is "0.2-0.3%" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0.0-0.1%" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Canada GDP: June 2026 (MoM)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.