Traders assign the highest implied probability (37.5%) to a 2.4% year-over-year Core CPI reading for August 2026, reflecting recent moderation in underlying price pressures amid resilient but cooling labor market conditions and stable commodity trends. The closely clustered odds around 2.3–2.5% capture consensus expectations following the prior month's print and incoming data on services inflation and shelter costs, with the distribution underscoring limited conviction for sharper moves. Key upcoming catalysts include the next employment report and any Federal Reserve communications that could shift rate-cut expectations and risk-asset sentiment ahead of the release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.4% 40%
2.3% 23%
2.5% 20%
2.6% 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
≤2.0%
5%
2.1%
2%
2.2%
7%
2.3%
23%
2.4%
40%
2.5%
20%
2.6%
8%
2.7%
8%
2.8%
6%
≥2.9%
3%
2.4% 40%
2.3% 23%
2.5% 20%
2.6% 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
≤2.0%
$209 Vol.
5%
2.1%
$164 Vol.
2%
2.2%
$282 Vol.
7%
2.3%
$186 Vol.
23%
2.4%
$1,860 Vol.
40%
2.5%
$133 Vol.
20%
2.6%
$179 Vol.
8%
2.7%
$217 Vol.
8%
2.8%
$234 Vol.
6%
≥2.9%
$146 Vol.
3%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Traders assign the highest implied probability (37.5%) to a 2.4% year-over-year Core CPI reading for August 2026, reflecting recent moderation in underlying price pressures amid resilient but cooling labor market conditions and stable commodity trends. The closely clustered odds around 2.3–2.5% capture consensus expectations following the prior month's print and incoming data on services inflation and shelter costs, with the distribution underscoring limited conviction for sharper moves. Key upcoming catalysts include the next employment report and any Federal Reserve communications that could shift rate-cut expectations and risk-asset sentiment ahead of the release.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Volume
$3,610End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Traders assign the highest implied probability (37.5%) to a 2.4% year-over-year Core CPI reading for August 2026, reflecting recent moderation in underlying price pressures amid resilient but cooling labor market conditions and stable commodity trends. The closely clustered odds around 2.3–2.5% capture consensus expectations following the prior month's print and incoming data on services inflation and shelter costs, with the distribution underscoring limited conviction for sharper moves. Key upcoming catalysts include the next employment report and any Federal Reserve communications that could shift rate-cut expectations and risk-asset sentiment ahead of the release.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$3,610End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (37.5%) to a 2.4% year-over-year Core CPI reading for August 2026, reflecting recent moderation in underlying price pressures amid resilient but cooling labor market conditions and stable commodity trends. The closely clustered odds around 2.3–2.5% capture consensus expectations following the prior month's print and incoming data on services inflation and shelter costs, with the distribution underscoring limited conviction for sharper moves. Key upcoming catalysts include the next employment report and any Federal Reserve communications that could shift rate-cut expectations and risk-asset sentiment ahead of the release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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