Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83% implied probability to no critical Discord incident by May 31, driven by the platform's operational stability since a non-critical API error outage on May 8 resolved within 3.5 hours without red-level classification on discordstatus.com. Subsequent minor disruptions—a 26-minute messaging glitch on May 2 and guild session issues on May 9—were swiftly addressed, maintaining 99.81% API uptime over 90 days amid a pattern of short-lived, partial impacts rather than widespread failures or data breaches. Absent confirmed vulnerabilities, exploits, or escalating threats, sentiment reflects Discord's resilient infrastructure, though traders price in residual risk from historical outage frequency ahead of the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$17,346 Vol.
$17,346 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$17,346 Vol.
$17,346 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83% implied probability to no critical Discord incident by May 31, driven by the platform's operational stability since a non-critical API error outage on May 8 resolved within 3.5 hours without red-level classification on discordstatus.com. Subsequent minor disruptions—a 26-minute messaging glitch on May 2 and guild session issues on May 9—were swiftly addressed, maintaining 99.81% API uptime over 90 days amid a pattern of short-lived, partial impacts rather than widespread failures or data breaches. Absent confirmed vulnerabilities, exploits, or escalating threats, sentiment reflects Discord's resilient infrastructure, though traders price in residual risk from historical outage frequency ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$17,346End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83% implied probability to no critical Discord incident by May 31, driven by the platform's operational stability since a non-critical API error outage on May 8 resolved within 3.5 hours without red-level classification on discordstatus.com. Subsequent minor disruptions—a 26-minute messaging glitch on May 2 and guild session issues on May 9—were swiftly addressed, maintaining 99.81% API uptime over 90 days amid a pattern of short-lived, partial impacts rather than widespread failures or data breaches. Absent confirmed vulnerabilities, exploits, or escalating threats, sentiment reflects Discord's resilient infrastructure, though traders price in residual risk from historical outage frequency ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Volume
$17,346End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83% implied probability to no critical Discord incident by May 31, driven by the platform's operational stability since a non-critical API error outage on May 8 resolved within 3.5 hours without red-level classification on discordstatus.com. Subsequent minor disruptions—a 26-minute messaging glitch on May 2 and guild session issues on May 9—were swiftly addressed, maintaining 99.81% API uptime over 90 days amid a pattern of short-lived, partial impacts rather than widespread failures or data breaches. Absent confirmed vulnerabilities, exploits, or escalating threats, sentiment reflects Discord's resilient infrastructure, though traders price in residual risk from historical outage frequency ahead of the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions