Germany’s subdued Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 0.3 percent quarter-over-quarter, combined with the government’s April halving of its full-year growth forecast to 0.5 percent amid the Iran war-driven surge in energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for weak Q2 momentum. Rising harmonized inflation to 2.9 percent in April and unemployment climbing above 3 million are weighing on consumption and investment, while softening economic sentiment indices reinforce downside risks. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between the ≤0.0 percent and 0.1–0.3 percent buckets, markets reflect balanced uncertainty over whether fiscal stimulus and any easing in energy costs can lift sequential growth above stagnation or whether persistent price pressures and labor-market softening will keep output flat or negative through mid-year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 42%
1.3%+ 41%
0.7-0.9% 25%
NEW
NEW
Jul 30, 2026
≤0.0%
48%
0.1-0.3%
46%
0.4-0.6%
27%
0.7-0.9%
25%
1.0-1.2%
42%
1.3%+
41%
0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 42%
1.3%+ 41%
0.7-0.9% 25%
NEW
NEW
Jul 30, 2026
≤0.0%
$8 Vol.
48%
0.1-0.3%
$5 Vol.
46%
0.4-0.6%
$4 Vol.
27%
0.7-0.9%
$0 Vol.
25%
1.0-1.2%
$0 Vol.
42%
1.3%+
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany’s subdued Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 0.3 percent quarter-over-quarter, combined with the government’s April halving of its full-year growth forecast to 0.5 percent amid the Iran war-driven surge in energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for weak Q2 momentum. Rising harmonized inflation to 2.9 percent in April and unemployment climbing above 3 million are weighing on consumption and investment, while softening economic sentiment indices reinforce downside risks. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between the ≤0.0 percent and 0.1–0.3 percent buckets, markets reflect balanced uncertainty over whether fiscal stimulus and any easing in energy costs can lift sequential growth above stagnation or whether persistent price pressures and labor-market softening will keep output flat or negative through mid-year.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
Volume
$17End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany’s subdued Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 0.3 percent quarter-over-quarter, combined with the government’s April halving of its full-year growth forecast to 0.5 percent amid the Iran war-driven surge in energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for weak Q2 momentum. Rising harmonized inflation to 2.9 percent in April and unemployment climbing above 3 million are weighing on consumption and investment, while softening economic sentiment indices reinforce downside risks. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between the ≤0.0 percent and 0.1–0.3 percent buckets, markets reflect balanced uncertainty over whether fiscal stimulus and any easing in energy costs can lift sequential growth above stagnation or whether persistent price pressures and labor-market softening will keep output flat or negative through mid-year.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Germany’s subdued Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 0.3 percent quarter-over-quarter, combined with the government’s April halving of its full-year growth forecast to 0.5 percent amid the Iran war-driven surge in energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for weak Q2 momentum. Rising harmonized inflation to 2.9 percent in April and unemployment climbing above 3 million are weighing on consumption and investment, while softening economic sentiment indices reinforce downside risks. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between the ≤0.0 percent and 0.1–0.3 percent buckets, markets reflect balanced uncertainty over whether fiscal stimulus and any easing in energy costs can lift sequential growth above stagnation or whether persistent price pressures and labor-market softening will keep output flat or negative through mid-year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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