**Forecast models from multiple sources, including PredictWind, Turkish meteorological reports, and European centers like ECMWF, currently project a high of 23–25°C for Ankara on September 19, 2026, with the majority clustering around 24°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds.** This aligns directly with the market-implied probabilities, where 24°C leads at 43.5%, followed by 23°C (27.5%) and 25°C (20.5%), reflecting trader consensus on the narrow expected range. Recent developments reinforce this positioning. Rain and thunderstorms on September 17 have given way to clearer, drier conditions by the weekend, with overnight lows dropping to 12–14°C and daytime highs stabilizing near seasonal norms rather than the higher historical September average of ~26–27°C. No significant warm advection or blocking patterns appear in the latest model runs, keeping extremes (below 22°C or above 26°C) at low probabilities. Key resolution factors include the official daily maximum recorded at Ankara’s primary stations, typically measured under standard conditions. With only two days until the event, updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles will likely refine the exact peak but are unlikely to shift the outcome outside the current 23–25°C window unless an unexpected frontal passage develops. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance heavily, consistent with the tight clustering of leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on September 19?
Highest temperature in Ankara on September 19?
24°C 48%
23°C 27%
25°C 19%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
27%
24°C
48%
25°C
19%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 48%
23°C 27%
25°C 19%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
19°C or below
$230 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$100 Vol.
5%
23°C
$244 Vol.
27%
24°C
$470 Vol.
48%
25°C
$162 Vol.
19%
26°C
$122 Vol.
4%
27°C
$78 Vol.
1%
28°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$261 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from multiple sources, including PredictWind, Turkish meteorological reports, and European centers like ECMWF, currently project a high of 23–25°C for Ankara on September 19, 2026, with the majority clustering around 24°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds.** This aligns directly with the market-implied probabilities, where 24°C leads at 43.5%, followed by 23°C (27.5%) and 25°C (20.5%), reflecting trader consensus on the narrow expected range.
Recent developments reinforce this positioning. Rain and thunderstorms on September 17 have given way to clearer, drier conditions by the weekend, with overnight lows dropping to 12–14°C and daytime highs stabilizing near seasonal norms rather than the higher historical September average of ~26–27°C. No significant warm advection or blocking patterns appear in the latest model runs, keeping extremes (below 22°C or above 26°C) at low probabilities.
Key resolution factors include the official daily maximum recorded at Ankara’s primary stations, typically measured under standard conditions. With only two days until the event, updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles will likely refine the exact peak but are unlikely to shift the outcome outside the current 23–25°C window unless an unexpected frontal passage develops. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance heavily, consistent with the tight clustering of leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,723End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from multiple sources, including PredictWind, Turkish meteorological reports, and European centers like ECMWF, currently project a high of 23–25°C for Ankara on September 19, 2026, with the majority clustering around 24°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds.** This aligns directly with the market-implied probabilities, where 24°C leads at 43.5%, followed by 23°C (27.5%) and 25°C (20.5%), reflecting trader consensus on the narrow expected range.
Recent developments reinforce this positioning. Rain and thunderstorms on September 17 have given way to clearer, drier conditions by the weekend, with overnight lows dropping to 12–14°C and daytime highs stabilizing near seasonal norms rather than the higher historical September average of ~26–27°C. No significant warm advection or blocking patterns appear in the latest model runs, keeping extremes (below 22°C or above 26°C) at low probabilities.
Key resolution factors include the official daily maximum recorded at Ankara’s primary stations, typically measured under standard conditions. With only two days until the event, updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles will likely refine the exact peak but are unlikely to shift the outcome outside the current 23–25°C window unless an unexpected frontal passage develops. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance heavily, consistent with the tight clustering of leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,723End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from multiple sources, including PredictWind, Turkish meteorological reports, and European centers like ECMWF, currently project a high of 23–25°C for Ankara on September 19, 2026, with the majority clustering around 24°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds.** This aligns directly with the market-implied probabilities, where 24°C leads at 43.5%, followed by 23°C (27.5%) and 25°C (20.5%), reflecting trader consensus on the narrow expected range. Recent developments reinforce this positioning. Rain and thunderstorms on September 17 have given way to clearer, drier conditions by the weekend, with overnight lows dropping to 12–14°C and daytime highs stabilizing near seasonal norms rather than the higher historical September average of ~26–27°C. No significant warm advection or blocking patterns appear in the latest model runs, keeping extremes (below 22°C or above 26°C) at low probabilities. Key resolution factors include the official daily maximum recorded at Ankara’s primary stations, typically measured under standard conditions. With only two days until the event, updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles will likely refine the exact peak but are unlikely to shift the outcome outside the current 23–25°C window unless an unexpected frontal passage develops. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance heavily, consistent with the tight clustering of leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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