Persistent high pressure and a strong upper-level ridge over Texas are driving above-average heat across Austin, with National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance pointing to mostly sunny skies and highs near 100–101°F on August 3. This setup favors the market-leading 100–101°F bin by suppressing cloud cover and limiting mixing of cooler air aloft. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping 98–99°F and 102–103°F as secondary possibilities if minor timing shifts occur in the ridge or if dew points rise enough to affect maximum temperatures. Historical August averages near 96–98°F and the absence of any significant frontal passage or tropical moisture underscore why traders assign roughly two-thirds combined probability to the 98–103°F range. Updated NWS and private model guidance expected overnight will be the next key input.