Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability to a 30°C daily maximum in Manila on August 19, reflecting PAGASA observations and model guidance showing persistent southwest monsoon influence with cloud cover and scattered showers that moderate daytime heating. Official forecasts from the agency list a high near 27–29°C, consistent with August climatology where typical maxima hover around 30–31°C but are often suppressed during active monsoon periods. Numerical weather models reinforce this range through enhanced moisture and reduced solar insolation. The outcome could shift only if rapid clearing develops or localized subsidence allows stronger insolation, pushing readings to 31°C or above—scenarios current guidance assigns low likelihood before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 19?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 19?
30°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$28,771 Vol.
$28,771 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$28,771 Vol.
$28,771 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
22°C or below
$191 Vol.
No
23°C
$191 Vol.
No
24°C
$383 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,177 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,149 Vol.
No
27°C
$6,950 Vol.
No
28°C
$4,936 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,230 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,662 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$2,492 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$1,410 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability to a 30°C daily maximum in Manila on August 19, reflecting PAGASA observations and model guidance showing persistent southwest monsoon influence with cloud cover and scattered showers that moderate daytime heating. Official forecasts from the agency list a high near 27–29°C, consistent with August climatology where typical maxima hover around 30–31°C but are often suppressed during active monsoon periods. Numerical weather models reinforce this range through enhanced moisture and reduced solar insolation. The outcome could shift only if rapid clearing develops or localized subsidence allows stronger insolation, pushing readings to 31°C or above—scenarios current guidance assigns low likelihood before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$28,771End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability to a 30°C daily maximum in Manila on August 19, reflecting PAGASA observations and model guidance showing persistent southwest monsoon influence with cloud cover and scattered showers that moderate daytime heating. Official forecasts from the agency list a high near 27–29°C, consistent with August climatology where typical maxima hover around 30–31°C but are often suppressed during active monsoon periods. Numerical weather models reinforce this range through enhanced moisture and reduced solar insolation. The outcome could shift only if rapid clearing develops or localized subsidence allows stronger insolation, pushing readings to 31°C or above—scenarios current guidance assigns low likelihood before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,771End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability to a 30°C daily maximum in Manila on August 19, reflecting PAGASA observations and model guidance showing persistent southwest monsoon influence with cloud cover and scattered showers that moderate daytime heating. Official forecasts from the agency list a high near 27–29°C, consistent with August climatology where typical maxima hover around 30–31°C but are often suppressed during active monsoon periods. Numerical weather models reinforce this range through enhanced moisture and reduced solar insolation. The outcome could shift only if rapid clearing develops or localized subsidence allows stronger insolation, pushing readings to 31°C or above—scenarios current guidance assigns low likelihood before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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