Traders see the 25–26°C outcomes as nearly even because Mexico City’s high-elevation plateau (≈2,240 m) and mid-July rainy-season convection create narrow margins between these thresholds. Afternoon thunderstorms, driven by diurnal heating and moisture influx from the Pacific and Gulf, frequently develop by early afternoon and limit peak temperatures through cloud shading and evaporative cooling. Recent model guidance shows modest daytime instability with variable timing of convective initiation, allowing slight differences in insolation or storm onset to shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical July records cluster in the low-to-mid 20s, with occasional clearer periods permitting brief spikes near 26°C when storms are delayed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on July 15?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 15?
26°C 27%
25°C 27%
24°C 19%
27°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
10%
24°C
13%
25°C
27%
26°C
27%
27°C
16%
28°C
3%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 27%
25°C 27%
24°C 19%
27°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
20°C or below
$147 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$19 Vol.
1%
22°C
$5 Vol.
1%
23°C
$0 Vol.
10%
24°C
$45 Vol.
13%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$30 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
16%
28°C
$2 Vol.
3%
29°C
$15 Vol.
3%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 25–26°C outcomes as nearly even because Mexico City’s high-elevation plateau (≈2,240 m) and mid-July rainy-season convection create narrow margins between these thresholds. Afternoon thunderstorms, driven by diurnal heating and moisture influx from the Pacific and Gulf, frequently develop by early afternoon and limit peak temperatures through cloud shading and evaporative cooling. Recent model guidance shows modest daytime instability with variable timing of convective initiation, allowing slight differences in insolation or storm onset to shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical July records cluster in the low-to-mid 20s, with occasional clearer periods permitting brief spikes near 26°C when storms are delayed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
Volume
$268End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 25–26°C outcomes as nearly even because Mexico City’s high-elevation plateau (≈2,240 m) and mid-July rainy-season convection create narrow margins between these thresholds. Afternoon thunderstorms, driven by diurnal heating and moisture influx from the Pacific and Gulf, frequently develop by early afternoon and limit peak temperatures through cloud shading and evaporative cooling. Recent model guidance shows modest daytime instability with variable timing of convective initiation, allowing slight differences in insolation or storm onset to shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical July records cluster in the low-to-mid 20s, with occasional clearer periods permitting brief spikes near 26°C when storms are delayed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$268End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 25–26°C outcomes as nearly even because Mexico City’s high-elevation plateau (≈2,240 m) and mid-July rainy-season convection create narrow margins between these thresholds. Afternoon thunderstorms, driven by diurnal heating and moisture influx from the Pacific and Gulf, frequently develop by early afternoon and limit peak temperatures through cloud shading and evaporative cooling. Recent model guidance shows modest daytime instability with variable timing of convective initiation, allowing slight differences in insolation or storm onset to shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical July records cluster in the low-to-mid 20s, with occasional clearer periods permitting brief spikes near 26°C when storms are delayed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions