Trader consensus around 21–23°C for São Paulo’s July 15 maximum reflects the city’s typical subtropical winter pattern under stable high-pressure systems, with light winds and mostly clear skies allowing modest daytime heating from overnight lows near 10–12°C. Historical July maxima average 21–22°C, and recent observations plus short-range model guidance show no strong cold fronts or anomalous warming to push readings outside this narrow band. Forecast spreads remain modest due to limited synoptic variability this time of year, supporting the heavy weighting on 22°C while leaving modest room for 23°C if insolation increases slightly. Updated official guidance from regional meteorological services over the next 24 hours will likely refine these market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 15?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 15?
22°C 40%
21°C 28%
23°C 12.6%
20°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
4%
20°C
8%
21°C
28%
22°C
40%
23°C
13%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
2%
22°C 40%
21°C 28%
23°C 12.6%
20°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$330 Vol.
1%
17°C
$310 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$28 Vol.
4%
20°C
$235 Vol.
8%
21°C
$86 Vol.
28%
22°C
$38 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
13%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C or higher
$2 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 21–23°C for São Paulo’s July 15 maximum reflects the city’s typical subtropical winter pattern under stable high-pressure systems, with light winds and mostly clear skies allowing modest daytime heating from overnight lows near 10–12°C. Historical July maxima average 21–22°C, and recent observations plus short-range model guidance show no strong cold fronts or anomalous warming to push readings outside this narrow band. Forecast spreads remain modest due to limited synoptic variability this time of year, supporting the heavy weighting on 22°C while leaving modest room for 23°C if insolation increases slightly. Updated official guidance from regional meteorological services over the next 24 hours will likely refine these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 10:02 PM ET
Volume
$661End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 10:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 21–23°C for São Paulo’s July 15 maximum reflects the city’s typical subtropical winter pattern under stable high-pressure systems, with light winds and mostly clear skies allowing modest daytime heating from overnight lows near 10–12°C. Historical July maxima average 21–22°C, and recent observations plus short-range model guidance show no strong cold fronts or anomalous warming to push readings outside this narrow band. Forecast spreads remain modest due to limited synoptic variability this time of year, supporting the heavy weighting on 22°C while leaving modest room for 23°C if insolation increases slightly. Updated official guidance from regional meteorological services over the next 24 hours will likely refine these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$661End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 10:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 21–23°C for São Paulo’s July 15 maximum reflects the city’s typical subtropical winter pattern under stable high-pressure systems, with light winds and mostly clear skies allowing modest daytime heating from overnight lows near 10–12°C. Historical July maxima average 21–22°C, and recent observations plus short-range model guidance show no strong cold fronts or anomalous warming to push readings outside this narrow band. Forecast spreads remain modest due to limited synoptic variability this time of year, supporting the heavy weighting on 22°C while leaving modest room for 23°C if insolation increases slightly. Updated official guidance from regional meteorological services over the next 24 hours will likely refine these market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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