Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs places Milan's July 16 maximum near 33–35°C under a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warm air from North Africa, with ensemble spread reflecting uncertainty in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and possible late-day convection. Official station measurements (typically Linate) often run 1–2°C below grid-point forecasts during heat episodes, while urban heat-island effects can push localized readings higher. Traders appear to weight the lower end of this range most heavily, consistent with resolution criteria tied to precise observational thresholds rather than broader model guidance. Updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the short-term resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on July 16?
Highest temperature in Milan on July 16?
32°C 40%
33°C 36%
34°C 12%
31°C 8.5%
NEW
$10,016 Vol.
NEW
$10,016 Vol.
Jul 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
9%
32°C
40%
33°C
36%
34°C
12%
35°C
5%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 40%
33°C 36%
34°C 12%
31°C 8.5%
NEW
$10,016 Vol.
NEW
$10,016 Vol.
Jul 16, 2026
27°C or below
$832 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$495 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$224 Vol.
1%
30°C
$283 Vol.
1%
31°C
$327 Vol.
9%
32°C
$1,982 Vol.
40%
33°C
$2,459 Vol.
36%
34°C
$2,588 Vol.
12%
35°C
$232 Vol.
5%
36°C
$271 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$322 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs places Milan's July 16 maximum near 33–35°C under a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warm air from North Africa, with ensemble spread reflecting uncertainty in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and possible late-day convection. Official station measurements (typically Linate) often run 1–2°C below grid-point forecasts during heat episodes, while urban heat-island effects can push localized readings higher. Traders appear to weight the lower end of this range most heavily, consistent with resolution criteria tied to precise observational thresholds rather than broader model guidance. Updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the short-term resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$10,016End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs places Milan's July 16 maximum near 33–35°C under a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warm air from North Africa, with ensemble spread reflecting uncertainty in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and possible late-day convection. Official station measurements (typically Linate) often run 1–2°C below grid-point forecasts during heat episodes, while urban heat-island effects can push localized readings higher. Traders appear to weight the lower end of this range most heavily, consistent with resolution criteria tied to precise observational thresholds rather than broader model guidance. Updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the short-term resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,016End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs places Milan's July 16 maximum near 33–35°C under a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warm air from North Africa, with ensemble spread reflecting uncertainty in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and possible late-day convection. Official station measurements (typically Linate) often run 1–2°C below grid-point forecasts during heat episodes, while urban heat-island effects can push localized readings higher. Traders appear to weight the lower end of this range most heavily, consistent with resolution criteria tied to precise observational thresholds rather than broader model guidance. Updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the short-term resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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