Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Germany's DWD indicate a high-pressure ridge bringing warm southerly flow to southern Bavaria, positioning Munich's August 4 maximum near 34–36 °C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in afternoon cloud development, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the precise timing of peak insolation under light winds, with some runs favoring brief convective cooling that caps readings at 34 °C while others sustain clearer conditions for 36 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the leading outcomes, as traders weigh the latest high-resolution model consensus and historical analogs for early-August heat episodes in the region against the inherent uncertainty range typical of 48-hour temperature predictions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 4?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 4?
35°C 39%
36°C 28%
34°C 18%
37°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
3%
34°C
18%
35°C
39%
36°C
28%
37°C
15%
38°C
3%
39°C
2%
40°C or higher
2%
35°C 39%
36°C 28%
34°C 18%
37°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
30°C or below
$398 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
1%
32°C
$42 Vol.
4%
33°C
$41 Vol.
3%
34°C
$113 Vol.
18%
35°C
$310 Vol.
39%
36°C
$124 Vol.
28%
37°C
$60 Vol.
15%
38°C
$41 Vol.
3%
39°C
$32 Vol.
2%
40°C or higher
$15 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Germany's DWD indicate a high-pressure ridge bringing warm southerly flow to southern Bavaria, positioning Munich's August 4 maximum near 34–36 °C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in afternoon cloud development, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the precise timing of peak insolation under light winds, with some runs favoring brief convective cooling that caps readings at 34 °C while others sustain clearer conditions for 36 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the leading outcomes, as traders weigh the latest high-resolution model consensus and historical analogs for early-August heat episodes in the region against the inherent uncertainty range typical of 48-hour temperature predictions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,186End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Germany's DWD indicate a high-pressure ridge bringing warm southerly flow to southern Bavaria, positioning Munich's August 4 maximum near 34–36 °C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in afternoon cloud development, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the precise timing of peak insolation under light winds, with some runs favoring brief convective cooling that caps readings at 34 °C while others sustain clearer conditions for 36 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the leading outcomes, as traders weigh the latest high-resolution model consensus and historical analogs for early-August heat episodes in the region against the inherent uncertainty range typical of 48-hour temperature predictions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,186End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Germany's DWD indicate a high-pressure ridge bringing warm southerly flow to southern Bavaria, positioning Munich's August 4 maximum near 34–36 °C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in afternoon cloud development, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the precise timing of peak insolation under light winds, with some runs favoring brief convective cooling that caps readings at 34 °C while others sustain clearer conditions for 36 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the leading outcomes, as traders weigh the latest high-resolution model consensus and historical analogs for early-August heat episodes in the region against the inherent uncertainty range typical of 48-hour temperature predictions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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