Current forecast models from sources including GFS and European guidance show a stable high-pressure ridge over northern France, producing clear skies, light northeasterly winds around 5–10 km/h, and negligible precipitation chances for Paris on September 22. This setup supports daytime heating to a maximum near 24–25 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 58.5 % for 24 °C and 33 % for 25 °C. The values sit several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of roughly 21 °C but remain well below historical September extremes. Recent model runs through September 20 have shown little spread or trend shifts, reinforcing trader consensus on this narrow range while acknowledging that small timing differences in peak insolation or boundary-layer mixing could still nudge the official reading between 23 °C and 26 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 22?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 22?
24°C 59%
25°C 33%
23°C 6%
26°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
6%
24°C
59%
25°C
33%
26°C
5%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 59%
25°C 33%
23°C 6%
26°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
19°C or below
$1,073 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$713 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$273 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$714 Vol.
6%
24°C
$3,053 Vol.
59%
25°C
$1,525 Vol.
33%
26°C
$921 Vol.
5%
27°C
$356 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$192 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS and European guidance show a stable high-pressure ridge over northern France, producing clear skies, light northeasterly winds around 5–10 km/h, and negligible precipitation chances for Paris on September 22. This setup supports daytime heating to a maximum near 24–25 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 58.5 % for 24 °C and 33 % for 25 °C. The values sit several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of roughly 21 °C but remain well below historical September extremes. Recent model runs through September 20 have shown little spread or trend shifts, reinforcing trader consensus on this narrow range while acknowledging that small timing differences in peak insolation or boundary-layer mixing could still nudge the official reading between 23 °C and 26 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$9,051End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS and European guidance show a stable high-pressure ridge over northern France, producing clear skies, light northeasterly winds around 5–10 km/h, and negligible precipitation chances for Paris on September 22. This setup supports daytime heating to a maximum near 24–25 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 58.5 % for 24 °C and 33 % for 25 °C. The values sit several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of roughly 21 °C but remain well below historical September extremes. Recent model runs through September 20 have shown little spread or trend shifts, reinforcing trader consensus on this narrow range while acknowledging that small timing differences in peak insolation or boundary-layer mixing could still nudge the official reading between 23 °C and 26 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,051End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including GFS and European guidance show a stable high-pressure ridge over northern France, producing clear skies, light northeasterly winds around 5–10 km/h, and negligible precipitation chances for Paris on September 22. This setup supports daytime heating to a maximum near 24–25 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 58.5 % for 24 °C and 33 % for 25 °C. The values sit several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of roughly 21 °C but remain well below historical September extremes. Recent model runs through September 20 have shown little spread or trend shifts, reinforcing trader consensus on this narrow range while acknowledging that small timing differences in peak insolation or boundary-layer mixing could still nudge the official reading between 23 °C and 26 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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