Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a minimum near 11–12°C in Paris on September 21, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and radiational cooling overnight under high pressure. This setup favors temperatures in the 10–12°C range, with small variations in cloud timing or wind speed creating uncertainty between 10°C and 11°C outcomes. Trader-implied odds cluster around these values because recent model runs have trended slightly cooler than seasonal norms, while the modest probability mass on 9°C or below captures tail risks from stronger cooling. Historical late-September lows average near 11°C, providing context for the tight spread. Updated guidance from the next model cycles will likely refine resolution odds before the overnight minimum is observed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 21?
10°C 35%
11°C 32%
9°C or below 27%
12°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
9°C or below
27%
10°C
35%
11°C
32%
12°C
16%
13°C
15%
14°C
3%
15°C
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
2%
10°C 35%
11°C 32%
9°C or below 27%
12°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
9°C or below
$314 Vol.
27%
10°C
$437 Vol.
35%
11°C
$839 Vol.
32%
12°C
$20 Vol.
16%
13°C
$20 Vol.
15%
14°C
$0 Vol.
3%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a minimum near 11–12°C in Paris on September 21, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and radiational cooling overnight under high pressure. This setup favors temperatures in the 10–12°C range, with small variations in cloud timing or wind speed creating uncertainty between 10°C and 11°C outcomes. Trader-implied odds cluster around these values because recent model runs have trended slightly cooler than seasonal norms, while the modest probability mass on 9°C or below captures tail risks from stronger cooling. Historical late-September lows average near 11°C, providing context for the tight spread. Updated guidance from the next model cycles will likely refine resolution odds before the overnight minimum is observed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,630End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a minimum near 11–12°C in Paris on September 21, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and radiational cooling overnight under high pressure. This setup favors temperatures in the 10–12°C range, with small variations in cloud timing or wind speed creating uncertainty between 10°C and 11°C outcomes. Trader-implied odds cluster around these values because recent model runs have trended slightly cooler than seasonal norms, while the modest probability mass on 9°C or below captures tail risks from stronger cooling. Historical late-September lows average near 11°C, providing context for the tight spread. Updated guidance from the next model cycles will likely refine resolution odds before the overnight minimum is observed.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,630End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a minimum near 11–12°C in Paris on September 21, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and radiational cooling overnight under high pressure. This setup favors temperatures in the 10–12°C range, with small variations in cloud timing or wind speed creating uncertainty between 10°C and 11°C outcomes. Trader-implied odds cluster around these values because recent model runs have trended slightly cooler than seasonal norms, while the modest probability mass on 9°C or below captures tail risks from stronger cooling. Historical late-September lows average near 11°C, providing context for the tight spread. Updated guidance from the next model cycles will likely refine resolution odds before the overnight minimum is observed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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