Current numerical weather models, including GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature near 14°C in Paris on September 20 under mostly cloudy skies, light west-northwest winds, and high pressure that moderates overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 14°C outcome at 29.5% implied probability, followed closely by 13°C and 15°C. Forecasts show daytime highs around 24–25°C, consistent with a warmer-than-average late-September pattern, while the historical 1991–2020 average low sits at 11.1°C. Minor model disagreements on cloud cover and wind strength could shift the overnight minimum across the tightly bunched 13–15°C range before resolution. Updated model guidance through September 19 will provide the final inputs for trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 20?
13°C 39%
12°C 36%
16°C 36%
17°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
10°C or below
25%
11°C
30%
12°C
36%
13°C
39%
14°C
23%
15°C
18%
16°C
36%
17°C
31%
18°C
30%
19°C
2%
20°C or higher
2%
13°C 39%
12°C 36%
16°C 36%
17°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
30%
12°C
$0 Vol.
36%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$119 Vol.
23%
15°C
$271 Vol.
18%
16°C
$0 Vol.
36%
17°C
$0 Vol.
31%
18°C
$0 Vol.
30%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather models, including GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature near 14°C in Paris on September 20 under mostly cloudy skies, light west-northwest winds, and high pressure that moderates overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 14°C outcome at 29.5% implied probability, followed closely by 13°C and 15°C. Forecasts show daytime highs around 24–25°C, consistent with a warmer-than-average late-September pattern, while the historical 1991–2020 average low sits at 11.1°C. Minor model disagreements on cloud cover and wind strength could shift the overnight minimum across the tightly bunched 13–15°C range before resolution. Updated model guidance through September 19 will provide the final inputs for trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$390End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather models, including GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature near 14°C in Paris on September 20 under mostly cloudy skies, light west-northwest winds, and high pressure that moderates overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 14°C outcome at 29.5% implied probability, followed closely by 13°C and 15°C. Forecasts show daytime highs around 24–25°C, consistent with a warmer-than-average late-September pattern, while the historical 1991–2020 average low sits at 11.1°C. Minor model disagreements on cloud cover and wind strength could shift the overnight minimum across the tightly bunched 13–15°C range before resolution. Updated model guidance through September 19 will provide the final inputs for trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$390End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather models, including GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature near 14°C in Paris on September 20 under mostly cloudy skies, light west-northwest winds, and high pressure that moderates overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading 14°C outcome at 29.5% implied probability, followed closely by 13°C and 15°C. Forecasts show daytime highs around 24–25°C, consistent with a warmer-than-average late-September pattern, while the historical 1991–2020 average low sits at 11.1°C. Minor model disagreements on cloud cover and wind strength could shift the overnight minimum across the tightly bunched 13–15°C range before resolution. Updated model guidance through September 19 will provide the final inputs for trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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