Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a cool maritime air mass and extensive cloud cover over central Poland as the dominant factors capping Warsaw's July 21 maximum near 18–19 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Persistent northeasterly flow and possible light precipitation are expected to limit solar heating and suppress afternoon peaks compared to typical July climatology of 23–24 °C. Minor differences between 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any partial clearing or boundary-layer mixing in the final model runs, while slight upside to 20 °C would require faster advection of warmer air than currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread against inherent short-range forecast uncertainty two days out.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 21?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 21?
18°C 42%
17°C 31%
19°C 18%
16°C 6.9%
$18,712 Vol.
$18,712 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
9%
17°C
31%
18°C
42%
19°C
18%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
18°C 42%
17°C 31%
19°C 18%
16°C 6.9%
$18,712 Vol.
$18,712 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
12°C or below
$208 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$211 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$694 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,175 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,504 Vol.
9%
17°C
$3,997 Vol.
31%
18°C
$2,071 Vol.
42%
19°C
$3,219 Vol.
18%
20°C
$2,245 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,040 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$1,371 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a cool maritime air mass and extensive cloud cover over central Poland as the dominant factors capping Warsaw's July 21 maximum near 18–19 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Persistent northeasterly flow and possible light precipitation are expected to limit solar heating and suppress afternoon peaks compared to typical July climatology of 23–24 °C. Minor differences between 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any partial clearing or boundary-layer mixing in the final model runs, while slight upside to 20 °C would require faster advection of warmer air than currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread against inherent short-range forecast uncertainty two days out.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$18,712End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a cool maritime air mass and extensive cloud cover over central Poland as the dominant factors capping Warsaw's July 21 maximum near 18–19 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Persistent northeasterly flow and possible light precipitation are expected to limit solar heating and suppress afternoon peaks compared to typical July climatology of 23–24 °C. Minor differences between 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any partial clearing or boundary-layer mixing in the final model runs, while slight upside to 20 °C would require faster advection of warmer air than currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread against inherent short-range forecast uncertainty two days out.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,712End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a cool maritime air mass and extensive cloud cover over central Poland as the dominant factors capping Warsaw's July 21 maximum near 18–19 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Persistent northeasterly flow and possible light precipitation are expected to limit solar heating and suppress afternoon peaks compared to typical July climatology of 23–24 °C. Minor differences between 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any partial clearing or boundary-layer mixing in the final model runs, while slight upside to 20 °C would require faster advection of warmer air than currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread against inherent short-range forecast uncertainty two days out.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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