Current forecasts from MetService New Zealand and global numerical weather prediction models indicate a daytime maximum of 14°C in Wellington on May 17, aligning closely with the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects typical mid-autumn conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, where moderate southerly winds, persistent high cloud cover, and limited solar heating suppress warming near the long-term May average high of 14°C. Official resolution depends on the highest recorded temperature at Wellington’s primary monitoring stations. A shift to clearer skies or stronger northerly flow could allow modest warming above 15°C, though ensemble consensus shows low probability of such deviations before the market closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 17?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 17?
14°C 99.8%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$53,942 Vol.
$53,942 Vol.
May 17, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
14°C 99.8%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$53,942 Vol.
$53,942 Vol.
May 17, 2026
8°C or below
$4,661 Vol.
No
9°C
$2,840 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,362 Vol.
No
11°C
$4,007 Vol.
No
12°C
$2,263 Vol.
No
13°C
$7,921 Vol.
No
14°C
$7,851 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$4,663 Vol.
No
16°C
$8,352 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,197 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$4,824 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from MetService New Zealand and global numerical weather prediction models indicate a daytime maximum of 14°C in Wellington on May 17, aligning closely with the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects typical mid-autumn conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, where moderate southerly winds, persistent high cloud cover, and limited solar heating suppress warming near the long-term May average high of 14°C. Official resolution depends on the highest recorded temperature at Wellington’s primary monitoring stations. A shift to clearer skies or stronger northerly flow could allow modest warming above 15°C, though ensemble consensus shows low probability of such deviations before the market closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$53,942End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from MetService New Zealand and global numerical weather prediction models indicate a daytime maximum of 14°C in Wellington on May 17, aligning closely with the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects typical mid-autumn conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, where moderate southerly winds, persistent high cloud cover, and limited solar heating suppress warming near the long-term May average high of 14°C. Official resolution depends on the highest recorded temperature at Wellington’s primary monitoring stations. A shift to clearer skies or stronger northerly flow could allow modest warming above 15°C, though ensemble consensus shows low probability of such deviations before the market closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$53,942End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNCurrent forecasts from MetService New Zealand and global numerical weather prediction models indicate a daytime maximum of 14°C in Wellington on May 17, aligning closely with the market-implied probability exceeding 99 percent for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects typical mid-autumn conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, where moderate southerly winds, persistent high cloud cover, and limited solar heating suppress warming near the long-term May average high of 14°C. Official resolution depends on the highest recorded temperature at Wellington’s primary monitoring stations. A shift to clearer skies or stronger northerly flow could allow modest warming above 15°C, though ensemble consensus shows low probability of such deviations before the market closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions