USGS data records five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through May 13, 2026—including a M7.4 offshore Japan on April 20, M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, M7.3 off Vanuatu on March 30, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M7.1 in Sabah, Malaysia on February 22—aligning precisely with the long-term global average of 15-16 annually from plate boundary stresses. This year-to-date pace implies 9-11 more events over the remaining seven months for a 14-16 total (29% market-implied odds), but traders closely split with 11-13 at 27% due to inherent Poisson-distributed variability, where annual counts fluctuate 10-25 without trends. Differentiating factors include potential clustering in Pacific subduction zones versus historical quiet spells elsewhere; continuous USGS catalog updates provide the next resolution clues amid unpredictable tectonic releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–16 29%
11–13 27%
17–19 21%
20+ 10.5%
$1,304,903 Vol.
$1,304,903 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5–7
1%
8–10
8%
11–13
27%
14–16
29%
17–19
21%
20+
10%
14–16 29%
11–13 27%
17–19 21%
20+ 10.5%
$1,304,903 Vol.
$1,304,903 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5–7
$70,054 Vol.
1%
8–10
$129,395 Vol.
8%
11–13
$410,303 Vol.
27%
14–16
$183,898 Vol.
29%
17–19
$206,151 Vol.
21%
20+
$62,164 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS data records five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through May 13, 2026—including a M7.4 offshore Japan on April 20, M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, M7.3 off Vanuatu on March 30, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M7.1 in Sabah, Malaysia on February 22—aligning precisely with the long-term global average of 15-16 annually from plate boundary stresses. This year-to-date pace implies 9-11 more events over the remaining seven months for a 14-16 total (29% market-implied odds), but traders closely split with 11-13 at 27% due to inherent Poisson-distributed variability, where annual counts fluctuate 10-25 without trends. Differentiating factors include potential clustering in Pacific subduction zones versus historical quiet spells elsewhere; continuous USGS catalog updates provide the next resolution clues amid unpredictable tectonic releases.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,304,903End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS data records five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through May 13, 2026—including a M7.4 offshore Japan on April 20, M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, M7.3 off Vanuatu on March 30, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M7.1 in Sabah, Malaysia on February 22—aligning precisely with the long-term global average of 15-16 annually from plate boundary stresses. This year-to-date pace implies 9-11 more events over the remaining seven months for a 14-16 total (29% market-implied odds), but traders closely split with 11-13 at 27% due to inherent Poisson-distributed variability, where annual counts fluctuate 10-25 without trends. Differentiating factors include potential clustering in Pacific subduction zones versus historical quiet spells elsewhere; continuous USGS catalog updates provide the next resolution clues amid unpredictable tectonic releases.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,304,903End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...USGS data records five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through May 13, 2026—including a M7.4 offshore Japan on April 20, M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, M7.3 off Vanuatu on March 30, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M7.1 in Sabah, Malaysia on February 22—aligning precisely with the long-term global average of 15-16 annually from plate boundary stresses. This year-to-date pace implies 9-11 more events over the remaining seven months for a 14-16 total (29% market-implied odds), but traders closely split with 11-13 at 27% due to inherent Poisson-distributed variability, where annual counts fluctuate 10-25 without trends. Differentiating factors include potential clustering in Pacific subduction zones versus historical quiet spells elsewhere; continuous USGS catalog updates provide the next resolution clues amid unpredictable tectonic releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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