Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration has included the firings of Kristi Noem at Homeland Security and Pam Bondi at Justice, plus the resignation of Lori Chavez-DeRemer at Labor, alongside Tulsi Gabbard’s departure from national intelligence, contributing to record rates of Senate-confirmed exits compared with prior terms. With roughly four months left in 2026, traders see a spread of probabilities because additional moves hinge on factors such as ongoing department probes, implementation frictions in priority policy areas, personal or health considerations, and presidential dissatisfaction with remaining secretaries. The narrow lead for one more departure reflects expectations of stabilization after spring changes, while higher outcomes gain traction from the administration’s pattern of rapid personnel shifts and pending confirmations like the new attorney general. Scheduled events through year-end, including potential legislative pushes and agency leadership reviews, could consolidate sentiment around specific totals if fresh departures or stability signals emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 28%
2 20.5%
5 15.6%
3 15%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
0
5%
1
31%
2
20%
3
15%
4
21%
5
16%
6
9%
7+
14%
1 28%
2 20.5%
5 15.6%
3 15%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
0
$4,948 Vol.
5%
1
$589 Vol.
31%
2
$425 Vol.
20%
3
$261 Vol.
15%
4
$321 Vol.
21%
5
$358 Vol.
16%
6
$393 Vol.
9%
7+
$1,791 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration has included the firings of Kristi Noem at Homeland Security and Pam Bondi at Justice, plus the resignation of Lori Chavez-DeRemer at Labor, alongside Tulsi Gabbard’s departure from national intelligence, contributing to record rates of Senate-confirmed exits compared with prior terms. With roughly four months left in 2026, traders see a spread of probabilities because additional moves hinge on factors such as ongoing department probes, implementation frictions in priority policy areas, personal or health considerations, and presidential dissatisfaction with remaining secretaries. The narrow lead for one more departure reflects expectations of stabilization after spring changes, while higher outcomes gain traction from the administration’s pattern of rapid personnel shifts and pending confirmations like the new attorney general. Scheduled events through year-end, including potential legislative pushes and agency leadership reviews, could consolidate sentiment around specific totals if fresh departures or stability signals emerge.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Volume
$9,086End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration has included the firings of Kristi Noem at Homeland Security and Pam Bondi at Justice, plus the resignation of Lori Chavez-DeRemer at Labor, alongside Tulsi Gabbard’s departure from national intelligence, contributing to record rates of Senate-confirmed exits compared with prior terms. With roughly four months left in 2026, traders see a spread of probabilities because additional moves hinge on factors such as ongoing department probes, implementation frictions in priority policy areas, personal or health considerations, and presidential dissatisfaction with remaining secretaries. The narrow lead for one more departure reflects expectations of stabilization after spring changes, while higher outcomes gain traction from the administration’s pattern of rapid personnel shifts and pending confirmations like the new attorney general. Scheduled events through year-end, including potential legislative pushes and agency leadership reviews, could consolidate sentiment around specific totals if fresh departures or stability signals emerge.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Volume
$9,086End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration has included the firings of Kristi Noem at Homeland Security and Pam Bondi at Justice, plus the resignation of Lori Chavez-DeRemer at Labor, alongside Tulsi Gabbard’s departure from national intelligence, contributing to record rates of Senate-confirmed exits compared with prior terms. With roughly four months left in 2026, traders see a spread of probabilities because additional moves hinge on factors such as ongoing department probes, implementation frictions in priority policy areas, personal or health considerations, and presidential dissatisfaction with remaining secretaries. The narrow lead for one more departure reflects expectations of stabilization after spring changes, while higher outcomes gain traction from the administration’s pattern of rapid personnel shifts and pending confirmations like the new attorney general. Scheduled events through year-end, including potential legislative pushes and agency leadership reviews, could consolidate sentiment around specific totals if fresh departures or stability signals emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions