SpaceX has completed only two Starship launches reaching space so far in 2026, both successful V3 test flights in May and July that demonstrated Raptor 3 engine performance, hot staging, and Starlink simulator deployment. Traders favor the 5-6 outcome because the program’s historically measured test cadence, ongoing orbital and tower-catch objectives for Flight 14, and regulatory timelines limit rapid scaling, even as hardware production and Florida pad construction advance. Recent progress with V3 reliability and satellite deployment data supports a modest ramp-up in the second half of the year, while persistent development hurdles and the shift toward full orbital profiles keep higher totals at low implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6 55%
<5 35%
7-8 8.3%
9-10 2.6%
$492,859 Vol.
$492,859 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
35%
5-6
55%
7-8
8%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 55%
<5 35%
7-8 8.3%
9-10 2.6%
$492,859 Vol.
$492,859 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$99,104 Vol.
35%
5-6
$113,791 Vol.
55%
7-8
$158,458 Vol.
8%
9-10
$61,464 Vol.
3%
11-12
$8,366 Vol.
3%
13-14
$9,146 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$30,046 Vol.
<1%
>16
$12,483 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed only two Starship launches reaching space so far in 2026, both successful V3 test flights in May and July that demonstrated Raptor 3 engine performance, hot staging, and Starlink simulator deployment. Traders favor the 5-6 outcome because the program’s historically measured test cadence, ongoing orbital and tower-catch objectives for Flight 14, and regulatory timelines limit rapid scaling, even as hardware production and Florida pad construction advance. Recent progress with V3 reliability and satellite deployment data supports a modest ramp-up in the second half of the year, while persistent development hurdles and the shift toward full orbital profiles keep higher totals at low implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$492,859End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed only two Starship launches reaching space so far in 2026, both successful V3 test flights in May and July that demonstrated Raptor 3 engine performance, hot staging, and Starlink simulator deployment. Traders favor the 5-6 outcome because the program’s historically measured test cadence, ongoing orbital and tower-catch objectives for Flight 14, and regulatory timelines limit rapid scaling, even as hardware production and Florida pad construction advance. Recent progress with V3 reliability and satellite deployment data supports a modest ramp-up in the second half of the year, while persistent development hurdles and the shift toward full orbital profiles keep higher totals at low implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$492,859End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX has completed only two Starship launches reaching space so far in 2026, both successful V3 test flights in May and July that demonstrated Raptor 3 engine performance, hot staging, and Starlink simulator deployment. Traders favor the 5-6 outcome because the program’s historically measured test cadence, ongoing orbital and tower-catch objectives for Flight 14, and regulatory timelines limit rapid scaling, even as hardware production and Florida pad construction advance. Recent progress with V3 reliability and satellite deployment data supports a modest ramp-up in the second half of the year, while persistent development hurdles and the shift toward full orbital profiles keep higher totals at low implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions