SpaceX has completed two Starship flights in 2026 so far—Flights 12 and 13 in May and July—both achieving key objectives including Starlink V3 satellite deployments with Version 3 vehicles and Raptor 3 engines. Trader consensus favoring 5-6 total launches reflects expectations of a measured cadence increase through year-end, supported by ongoing production scaling and the upcoming Flight 14 target for September that aims for the first low Earth orbit attempt and potential upper-stage catch. Regulatory approvals for more frequent operations, vehicle reuse milestones, and supply chain progress remain the primary swing factors, while technical hurdles in rapid iteration and FAA licensing timelines could still limit the annual total below or above this range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6 57%
<5 33%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 2.8%
$492,859 Vol.
$492,859 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
33%
5-6
57%
7-8
8%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 57%
<5 33%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 2.8%
$492,859 Vol.
$492,859 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$99,104 Vol.
33%
5-6
$113,791 Vol.
57%
7-8
$158,458 Vol.
8%
9-10
$61,464 Vol.
3%
11-12
$8,366 Vol.
3%
13-14
$9,146 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$30,046 Vol.
<1%
>16
$12,483 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed two Starship flights in 2026 so far—Flights 12 and 13 in May and July—both achieving key objectives including Starlink V3 satellite deployments with Version 3 vehicles and Raptor 3 engines. Trader consensus favoring 5-6 total launches reflects expectations of a measured cadence increase through year-end, supported by ongoing production scaling and the upcoming Flight 14 target for September that aims for the first low Earth orbit attempt and potential upper-stage catch. Regulatory approvals for more frequent operations, vehicle reuse milestones, and supply chain progress remain the primary swing factors, while technical hurdles in rapid iteration and FAA licensing timelines could still limit the annual total below or above this range.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$492,859End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed two Starship flights in 2026 so far—Flights 12 and 13 in May and July—both achieving key objectives including Starlink V3 satellite deployments with Version 3 vehicles and Raptor 3 engines. Trader consensus favoring 5-6 total launches reflects expectations of a measured cadence increase through year-end, supported by ongoing production scaling and the upcoming Flight 14 target for September that aims for the first low Earth orbit attempt and potential upper-stage catch. Regulatory approvals for more frequent operations, vehicle reuse milestones, and supply chain progress remain the primary swing factors, while technical hurdles in rapid iteration and FAA licensing timelines could still limit the annual total below or above this range.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$492,859End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX has completed two Starship flights in 2026 so far—Flights 12 and 13 in May and July—both achieving key objectives including Starlink V3 satellite deployments with Version 3 vehicles and Raptor 3 engines. Trader consensus favoring 5-6 total launches reflects expectations of a measured cadence increase through year-end, supported by ongoing production scaling and the upcoming Flight 14 target for September that aims for the first low Earth orbit attempt and potential upper-stage catch. Regulatory approvals for more frequent operations, vehicle reuse milestones, and supply chain progress remain the primary swing factors, while technical hurdles in rapid iteration and FAA licensing timelines could still limit the annual total below or above this range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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