Favorable environmental conditions, including warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear across the western Pacific, are driving model consensus for rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at around 40 knots. Multiple guidance systems, including HAFS, COAMPS-TC, and ensemble members, project a 65-knot or greater increase over the next 72 hours, supporting peak intensities near 125 knots. This positions Very Strong Typhoon as the leading market outcome at 50%, reflecting expected central pressures around 940-955 hPa. Some higher-end solutions reach Violent Typhoon thresholds above 130 knots, while cooler waters later in the period limit further gains and keep lower categories at reduced probabilities. Official agencies like JMA anticipate very strong status by late August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Very Strong Typhoon 50%
Typhoon 26%
Violent Typhoon 17%
Tropical Storm 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
6%
Severe Tropical Storm
6%
Typhoon
26%
Very Strong Typhoon
50%
Violent Typhoon
17%
Very Strong Typhoon 50%
Typhoon 26%
Violent Typhoon 17%
Tropical Storm 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$20 Vol.
6%
Severe Tropical Storm
$19 Vol.
6%
Typhoon
$37 Vol.
26%
Very Strong Typhoon
$35 Vol.
50%
Violent Typhoon
$96 Vol.
17%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Favorable environmental conditions, including warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear across the western Pacific, are driving model consensus for rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at around 40 knots. Multiple guidance systems, including HAFS, COAMPS-TC, and ensemble members, project a 65-knot or greater increase over the next 72 hours, supporting peak intensities near 125 knots. This positions Very Strong Typhoon as the leading market outcome at 50%, reflecting expected central pressures around 940-955 hPa. Some higher-end solutions reach Violent Typhoon thresholds above 130 knots, while cooler waters later in the period limit further gains and keep lower categories at reduced probabilities. Official agencies like JMA anticipate very strong status by late August.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volume
$207End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Favorable environmental conditions, including warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear across the western Pacific, are driving model consensus for rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at around 40 knots. Multiple guidance systems, including HAFS, COAMPS-TC, and ensemble members, project a 65-knot or greater increase over the next 72 hours, supporting peak intensities near 125 knots. This positions Very Strong Typhoon as the leading market outcome at 50%, reflecting expected central pressures around 940-955 hPa. Some higher-end solutions reach Violent Typhoon thresholds above 130 knots, while cooler waters later in the period limit further gains and keep lower categories at reduced probabilities. Official agencies like JMA anticipate very strong status by late August.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Volume
$207End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Favorable environmental conditions, including warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear across the western Pacific, are driving model consensus for rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at around 40 knots. Multiple guidance systems, including HAFS, COAMPS-TC, and ensemble members, project a 65-knot or greater increase over the next 72 hours, supporting peak intensities near 125 knots. This positions Very Strong Typhoon as the leading market outcome at 50%, reflecting expected central pressures around 940-955 hPa. Some higher-end solutions reach Violent Typhoon thresholds above 130 knots, while cooler waters later in the period limit further gains and keep lower categories at reduced probabilities. Official agencies like JMA anticipate very strong status by late August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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