**IAEA access to Iran's Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan enrichment facilities has remained blocked since U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 damaged above-ground structures and access points, leaving highly enriched uranium stockpiles unverified.** An interim U.S.-Iran memorandum in June 2026 briefly raised expectations of resumed inspections under IAEA oversight for downblending and verification, but the arrangement collapsed by July amid disputes over sanctions relief, final agreement terms, and Iranian conditions. The IAEA has continued quarterly verification only at unaffected sites such as Bushehr while reporting a complete loss of continuity of knowledge on enriched uranium inventories, centrifuge status, and activities at the three targeted locations. A September 2026 IAEA Board resolution referring Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council, combined with ongoing satellite observations of activity at related sites like Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz and statements from Iranian officials tying any access to broader diplomatic concessions, has kept near-term visit probabilities low. Traders assess outcomes based on whether renewed bilateral talks or external pressure produce concrete inspection modalities before specific resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$376,699 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
October 31
4%
December 31
14%
$376,699 Vol.
October 31
$84,621 Vol.
4%
December 31
$38,679 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.**IAEA access to Iran's Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan enrichment facilities has remained blocked since U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 damaged above-ground structures and access points, leaving highly enriched uranium stockpiles unverified.**
An interim U.S.-Iran memorandum in June 2026 briefly raised expectations of resumed inspections under IAEA oversight for downblending and verification, but the arrangement collapsed by July amid disputes over sanctions relief, final agreement terms, and Iranian conditions. The IAEA has continued quarterly verification only at unaffected sites such as Bushehr while reporting a complete loss of continuity of knowledge on enriched uranium inventories, centrifuge status, and activities at the three targeted locations. A September 2026 IAEA Board resolution referring Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council, combined with ongoing satellite observations of activity at related sites like Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz and statements from Iranian officials tying any access to broader diplomatic concessions, has kept near-term visit probabilities low. Traders assess outcomes based on whether renewed bilateral talks or external pressure produce concrete inspection modalities before specific resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$376,699End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.**IAEA access to Iran's Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan enrichment facilities has remained blocked since U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 damaged above-ground structures and access points, leaving highly enriched uranium stockpiles unverified.**
An interim U.S.-Iran memorandum in June 2026 briefly raised expectations of resumed inspections under IAEA oversight for downblending and verification, but the arrangement collapsed by July amid disputes over sanctions relief, final agreement terms, and Iranian conditions. The IAEA has continued quarterly verification only at unaffected sites such as Bushehr while reporting a complete loss of continuity of knowledge on enriched uranium inventories, centrifuge status, and activities at the three targeted locations. A September 2026 IAEA Board resolution referring Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council, combined with ongoing satellite observations of activity at related sites like Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz and statements from Iranian officials tying any access to broader diplomatic concessions, has kept near-term visit probabilities low. Traders assess outcomes based on whether renewed bilateral talks or external pressure produce concrete inspection modalities before specific resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$376,699End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**IAEA access to Iran's Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan enrichment facilities has remained blocked since U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 damaged above-ground structures and access points, leaving highly enriched uranium stockpiles unverified.** An interim U.S.-Iran memorandum in June 2026 briefly raised expectations of resumed inspections under IAEA oversight for downblending and verification, but the arrangement collapsed by July amid disputes over sanctions relief, final agreement terms, and Iranian conditions. The IAEA has continued quarterly verification only at unaffected sites such as Bushehr while reporting a complete loss of continuity of knowledge on enriched uranium inventories, centrifuge status, and activities at the three targeted locations. A September 2026 IAEA Board resolution referring Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council, combined with ongoing satellite observations of activity at related sites like Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz and statements from Iranian officials tying any access to broader diplomatic concessions, has kept near-term visit probabilities low. Traders assess outcomes based on whether renewed bilateral talks or external pressure produce concrete inspection modalities before specific resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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