Trader consensus on Japan’s Q1 2026 GDP has tightened around the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent year-over-year bands, which together command roughly 91 percent of market-implied odds ahead of the Cabinet Office preliminary release on May 19. Recent data show resilient export volumes and steady capital expenditure supporting moderate expansion, while private consumption has posted modest gains amid elevated Tankan and PMI readings through March. Energy-price pressures from Middle East developments have so far been limited, though analysts flag potential downside risks for Q2. The narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether final domestic-demand figures will match or exceed the 0.4 percent consensus estimate, with traders closely monitoring any last-minute revisions before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3–0.5% 48.5%
0.0–0.2% 6.7%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.0%
1.2%+ 1.6%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
4%
0.0–0.2%
7%
0.3–0.5%
48%
0.6–0.8%
42%
0.9–1.1%
28%
1.2%+
2%
0.3–0.5% 48.5%
0.0–0.2% 6.7%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.0%
1.2%+ 1.6%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,231 Vol.
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$1,161 Vol.
4%
0.0–0.2%
$1,272 Vol.
7%
0.3–0.5%
$825 Vol.
48%
0.6–0.8%
$473 Vol.
42%
0.9–1.1%
$707 Vol.
28%
1.2%+
$3,290 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus on Japan’s Q1 2026 GDP has tightened around the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent year-over-year bands, which together command roughly 91 percent of market-implied odds ahead of the Cabinet Office preliminary release on May 19. Recent data show resilient export volumes and steady capital expenditure supporting moderate expansion, while private consumption has posted modest gains amid elevated Tankan and PMI readings through March. Energy-price pressures from Middle East developments have so far been limited, though analysts flag potential downside risks for Q2. The narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether final domestic-demand figures will match or exceed the 0.4 percent consensus estimate, with traders closely monitoring any last-minute revisions before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$8,959End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus on Japan’s Q1 2026 GDP has tightened around the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent year-over-year bands, which together command roughly 91 percent of market-implied odds ahead of the Cabinet Office preliminary release on May 19. Recent data show resilient export volumes and steady capital expenditure supporting moderate expansion, while private consumption has posted modest gains amid elevated Tankan and PMI readings through March. Energy-price pressures from Middle East developments have so far been limited, though analysts flag potential downside risks for Q2. The narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether final domestic-demand figures will match or exceed the 0.4 percent consensus estimate, with traders closely monitoring any last-minute revisions before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$8,959End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Japan’s Q1 2026 GDP has tightened around the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent year-over-year bands, which together command roughly 91 percent of market-implied odds ahead of the Cabinet Office preliminary release on May 19. Recent data show resilient export volumes and steady capital expenditure supporting moderate expansion, while private consumption has posted modest gains amid elevated Tankan and PMI readings through March. Energy-price pressures from Middle East developments have so far been limited, though analysts flag potential downside risks for Q2. The narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether final domestic-demand figures will match or exceed the 0.4 percent consensus estimate, with traders closely monitoring any last-minute revisions before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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