President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a clear majority in the National Assembly with 161 of 300 seats, while the main opposition People Power Party controls roughly 110. Impeachment requires a two-thirds vote, or 200 seats, making passage dependent on substantial cross-party support that has not emerged. A June 2026 opposition-backed petition collected over 100,000 signatures and advanced to committee but stalled without further progress. Lee’s approval ratings have declined amid criticism of real estate policy and local election administration, yet he has repeatedly ruled out any reelection bid and focused on prosecution reform and governance priorities. These structural and political realities underpin trader consensus that impeachment before 2027 remains highly improbable. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major verified scandal prompting defections from the ruling party or a dramatic erosion of legislative cohesion ahead of scheduled votes.