President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a commanding National Assembly majority of roughly 179 seats, well short of the two-thirds threshold required to pass an impeachment motion. The conservative opposition remains fragmented and lacks the numbers or cross-aisle defections needed to advance removal proceedings before the end of 2026. Approval ratings have softened into the mid-40s amid policy debates and local-election fallout, yet no major scandals, legislative crises, or institutional triggers have emerged to generate sustained public or parliamentary pressure. Lee’s term runs through 2030 with no intervening national votes, and a recent citizen petition for impeachment stalled without realistic prospects of advancing. These structural barriers underpin the market’s strong consensus against impeachment in the near term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
8% chance
$19,132 Vol.
$19,132 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
8% chance
$19,132 Vol.
$19,132 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a commanding National Assembly majority of roughly 179 seats, well short of the two-thirds threshold required to pass an impeachment motion. The conservative opposition remains fragmented and lacks the numbers or cross-aisle defections needed to advance removal proceedings before the end of 2026. Approval ratings have softened into the mid-40s amid policy debates and local-election fallout, yet no major scandals, legislative crises, or institutional triggers have emerged to generate sustained public or parliamentary pressure. Lee’s term runs through 2030 with no intervening national votes, and a recent citizen petition for impeachment stalled without realistic prospects of advancing. These structural barriers underpin the market’s strong consensus against impeachment in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$19,132End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a commanding National Assembly majority of roughly 179 seats, well short of the two-thirds threshold required to pass an impeachment motion. The conservative opposition remains fragmented and lacks the numbers or cross-aisle defections needed to advance removal proceedings before the end of 2026. Approval ratings have softened into the mid-40s amid policy debates and local-election fallout, yet no major scandals, legislative crises, or institutional triggers have emerged to generate sustained public or parliamentary pressure. Lee’s term runs through 2030 with no intervening national votes, and a recent citizen petition for impeachment stalled without realistic prospects of advancing. These structural barriers underpin the market’s strong consensus against impeachment in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$19,132End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a commanding National Assembly majority of roughly 179 seats, well short of the two-thirds threshold required to pass an impeachment motion. The conservative opposition remains fragmented and lacks the numbers or cross-aisle defections needed to advance removal proceedings before the end of 2026. Approval ratings have softened into the mid-40s amid policy debates and local-election fallout, yet no major scandals, legislative crises, or institutional triggers have emerged to generate sustained public or parliamentary pressure. Lee’s term runs through 2030 with no intervening national votes, and a recent citizen petition for impeachment stalled without realistic prospects of advancing. These structural barriers underpin the market’s strong consensus against impeachment in the near term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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