President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a clear National Assembly majority that blocks any impeachment motion from reaching the required two-thirds threshold without substantial cross-party support, which has not emerged. An opposition petition in mid-2026 gathered signatures but stalled in committee, consistent with procedural barriers and the party’s seat distribution. Recent approval declines tied to cabinet nominations and housing policy prompted public apologies and clarifications on term limits and prosecutorial reforms, yet these have not generated legislative momentum for removal proceedings. Traders assign high probability to “No” because structural vote requirements and the absence of bipartisan consensus outweigh episodic controversies through the end of 2026. Late-breaking scandals or abrupt shifts in opposition leverage remain the main variables that could alter this outlook.