Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Los Angeles Mayoral Election — Discussion

YouKnowNothingJonSnow · 2025-10-09T20:46:17.342Z

Discussion about Los Angeles Mayoral Election. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

$13,928,027 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Karen Bass

$1,023,134 Vol.

56%

Nithya Raman

$1,758,554 Vol.

43%

$13,928,027 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Karen Bass

$1,023,134 Vol.

56%

Nithya Raman

$1,758,554 Vol.

43%

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

Market Opened: Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

Volume

$13,928,027

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Market Opened

Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Volume

$13,928,027

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Market Opened

Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Barbara Lee win the Oakland Mayor election?

90%

Will Alexi Giannoulias win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?

66%

Will Robert Luna win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election?

98%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Karen Bass" at 56%, followed by "Nithya Raman" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" has generated $13.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Los Angeles Mayoral Election," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is "Karen Bass" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nithya Raman" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $13.9 million traded on “Los Angeles Mayoral Election,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Los Angeles Mayoral Election," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 56¢ for "Karen Bass" in the "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 56% chance that "Karen Bass" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 56¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 44¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" market has an active community of 164 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Los Angeles Mayoral Election." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

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Comments (164)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

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