Forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS indicate mostly clear skies and light winds over Ankara for September 13, supporting overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–33°C. This setup typically produces minimum temperatures in the 16–19°C range, consistent with September climatology for the Anatolian plateau. Trader positioning reflects model spread on exact low values, with the 22°C-or-higher outcome at 38% likely pricing residual warm bias from recent high-pressure persistence, while clustered probabilities around 14–15°C capture potential for stronger cooling if winds remain calm and dew points stay low. Updated model runs and any late cloud development will drive the next shifts in implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 13?
22°C or higher 61%
16°C 38%
18°C 38%
19°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
12°C or below
31%
13°C
23%
14°C
30%
15°C
26%
16°C
38%
17°C
23%
18°C
38%
19°C
38%
20°C
38%
21°C
38%
22°C or higher
61%
22°C or higher 61%
16°C 38%
18°C 38%
19°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
12°C or below
$81 Vol.
31%
13°C
$0 Vol.
23%
14°C
$0 Vol.
30%
15°C
$92 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
38%
17°C
$0 Vol.
23%
18°C
$0 Vol.
38%
19°C
$0 Vol.
38%
20°C
$0 Vol.
38%
21°C
$0 Vol.
38%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS indicate mostly clear skies and light winds over Ankara for September 13, supporting overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–33°C. This setup typically produces minimum temperatures in the 16–19°C range, consistent with September climatology for the Anatolian plateau. Trader positioning reflects model spread on exact low values, with the 22°C-or-higher outcome at 38% likely pricing residual warm bias from recent high-pressure persistence, while clustered probabilities around 14–15°C capture potential for stronger cooling if winds remain calm and dew points stay low. Updated model runs and any late cloud development will drive the next shifts in implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$173End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS indicate mostly clear skies and light winds over Ankara for September 13, supporting overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–33°C. This setup typically produces minimum temperatures in the 16–19°C range, consistent with September climatology for the Anatolian plateau. Trader positioning reflects model spread on exact low values, with the 22°C-or-higher outcome at 38% likely pricing residual warm bias from recent high-pressure persistence, while clustered probabilities around 14–15°C capture potential for stronger cooling if winds remain calm and dew points stay low. Updated model runs and any late cloud development will drive the next shifts in implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$173End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS indicate mostly clear skies and light winds over Ankara for September 13, supporting overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–33°C. This setup typically produces minimum temperatures in the 16–19°C range, consistent with September climatology for the Anatolian plateau. Trader positioning reflects model spread on exact low values, with the 22°C-or-higher outcome at 38% likely pricing residual warm bias from recent high-pressure persistence, while clustered probabilities around 14–15°C capture potential for stronger cooling if winds remain calm and dew points stay low. Updated model runs and any late cloud development will drive the next shifts in implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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