Forecast models from sources including the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and GFS ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Ankara on September 12 near 15–17 °C under clear skies and light northeasterly winds of 2–5 m/s. This range reflects strong nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the Anatolian plateau in early autumn, tempered by low humidity around 40–50 % and minimal cloud cover that limits downward longwave radiation. The near-even market split between 12 °C or below and 22 °C or higher stems from small differences in boundary-layer wind speeds and dew-point forecasts, which can shift the overnight low by 2–3 °C across ensemble members. Historical September minima average near 11 °C, but current high-pressure dominance supports warmer values; updated model runs tomorrow morning will likely tighten the implied probability distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 12?
12°C or below 49%
16°C 38%
18°C 38%
14°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
12°C or below
49%
13°C
25%
14°C
31%
15°C
30%
16°C
38%
17°C
21%
18°C
38%
19°C
8%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
13%
12°C or below 49%
16°C 38%
18°C 38%
14°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
49%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
31%
15°C
$69 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
38%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
38%
19°C
$0 Vol.
8%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and GFS ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Ankara on September 12 near 15–17 °C under clear skies and light northeasterly winds of 2–5 m/s. This range reflects strong nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the Anatolian plateau in early autumn, tempered by low humidity around 40–50 % and minimal cloud cover that limits downward longwave radiation. The near-even market split between 12 °C or below and 22 °C or higher stems from small differences in boundary-layer wind speeds and dew-point forecasts, which can shift the overnight low by 2–3 °C across ensemble members. Historical September minima average near 11 °C, but current high-pressure dominance supports warmer values; updated model runs tomorrow morning will likely tighten the implied probability distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$69End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and GFS ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Ankara on September 12 near 15–17 °C under clear skies and light northeasterly winds of 2–5 m/s. This range reflects strong nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the Anatolian plateau in early autumn, tempered by low humidity around 40–50 % and minimal cloud cover that limits downward longwave radiation. The near-even market split between 12 °C or below and 22 °C or higher stems from small differences in boundary-layer wind speeds and dew-point forecasts, which can shift the overnight low by 2–3 °C across ensemble members. Historical September minima average near 11 °C, but current high-pressure dominance supports warmer values; updated model runs tomorrow morning will likely tighten the implied probability distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$69End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and GFS ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Ankara on September 12 near 15–17 °C under clear skies and light northeasterly winds of 2–5 m/s. This range reflects strong nocturnal radiative cooling typical of the Anatolian plateau in early autumn, tempered by low humidity around 40–50 % and minimal cloud cover that limits downward longwave radiation. The near-even market split between 12 °C or below and 22 °C or higher stems from small differences in boundary-layer wind speeds and dew-point forecasts, which can shift the overnight low by 2–3 °C across ensemble members. Historical September minima average near 11 °C, but current high-pressure dominance supports warmer values; updated model runs tomorrow morning will likely tighten the implied probability distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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