Recent forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show stable high-pressure dominance over Beijing, supporting a minimum temperature of 24°C on August 21 as the market consensus at 92.5% implied probability. This reflects observed overnight trends near 23–25°C and model agreement on limited radiative cooling under humid summer conditions with light winds. Historical August lows average near 21°C, yet persistent southerly flow and urban heat effects have kept readings elevated. A late-arriving frontal system or heavier precipitation could lower readings toward 22°C or below, though current ensemble runs assign low likelihood to such shifts before dawn observations finalize the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 21?
22°C 24%
18°C or below 11%
20°C 4%
21°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
18°C or below
11%
19°C
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
24%
23°C
39%
24°C
62%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 24%
18°C or below 11%
20°C 4%
21°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
18°C or below
$40 Vol.
11%
19°C
$127 Vol.
1%
20°C
$92 Vol.
4%
21°C
$92 Vol.
4%
22°C
$87 Vol.
24%
23°C
$444 Vol.
39%
24°C
$168 Vol.
62%
25°C
$150 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show stable high-pressure dominance over Beijing, supporting a minimum temperature of 24°C on August 21 as the market consensus at 92.5% implied probability. This reflects observed overnight trends near 23–25°C and model agreement on limited radiative cooling under humid summer conditions with light winds. Historical August lows average near 21°C, yet persistent southerly flow and urban heat effects have kept readings elevated. A late-arriving frontal system or heavier precipitation could lower readings toward 22°C or below, though current ensemble runs assign low likelihood to such shifts before dawn observations finalize the market.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,303End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show stable high-pressure dominance over Beijing, supporting a minimum temperature of 24°C on August 21 as the market consensus at 92.5% implied probability. This reflects observed overnight trends near 23–25°C and model agreement on limited radiative cooling under humid summer conditions with light winds. Historical August lows average near 21°C, yet persistent southerly flow and urban heat effects have kept readings elevated. A late-arriving frontal system or heavier precipitation could lower readings toward 22°C or below, though current ensemble runs assign low likelihood to such shifts before dawn observations finalize the market.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,303End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show stable high-pressure dominance over Beijing, supporting a minimum temperature of 24°C on August 21 as the market consensus at 92.5% implied probability. This reflects observed overnight trends near 23–25°C and model agreement on limited radiative cooling under humid summer conditions with light winds. Historical August lows average near 21°C, yet persistent southerly flow and urban heat effects have kept readings elevated. A late-arriving frontal system or heavier precipitation could lower readings toward 22°C or below, though current ensemble runs assign low likelihood to such shifts before dawn observations finalize the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions