Recent polar air intrusions and associated high-pressure systems have sustained unusually cold nights across the Buenos Aires region through August 22–23, with suburban lows dipping to −2 °C or below and city minima near 3–5 °C, prompting traders to assign roughly equal implied probabilities (around 40–43 %) to sub-zero, near-4 °C, or milder outcomes for the August 24 minimum. Official forecasts from sources such as the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and European models currently indicate a low near 7–8 °C under partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow, reflecting gradual moderation as the coldest air shifts. Historical August minima average 8 °C with occasional sub-zero events tied to clear, calm conditions favoring radiative cooling; any overnight cloud increase or wind shift could limit further drops, while persistence of dry polar air would favor colder readings. Updated model runs and official minimum observations will resolve the narrow spread among leading outcomes.