**Persistent heat and high humidity under a strong subtropical ridge are anchoring overnight lows near 80°F for Houston on August 24, 2026.** National Weather Service and model guidance show mostly clear skies with south-southwest winds of 5–15 mph, dew points in the mid-70s, and no significant frontal passage or precipitation to promote radiative cooling. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, consistent with the recent pattern of daily lows in the 74–82°F range during an extended heat wave. The closely matched market-implied probabilities on the tails (69°F or below and 88°F or higher both at 30%) reflect residual uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and any late-model adjustments to cloud cover or wind, even as the consensus forecast cluster sits in the 78–81°F bins. High moisture content limits nocturnal cooling despite clear conditions, while daytime sensible heating keeps the diurnal range compressed. No major synoptic changes are expected before the minimum is recorded, so resolution hinges on whether actual observations deviate from the 80°F guidance by more than a few degrees.