Recent Met Office and European model guidance points to overnight lows of 11–14°C in London on September 10, driven by a ridge of high pressure bringing light winds and variable cloud that allows moderate radiative cooling. Clearer spells favor the lower end near 11–12°C, while increased cloud or a slight uptick in southwesterly flow could hold minima closer to 13°C. These values align with the long-term September average low of roughly 12°C at Heathrow. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 11°C and 12°C because ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the date, with resolution depending on the official minimum recorded at the designated London station. Updated model runs overnight and on the 9th will be the next key inputs for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 10?
Lowest temperature in London on September 10?
11°C 45%
12°C 33%
5°C or below 31%
6°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
5°C or below
31%
6°C
30%
7°C
10%
8°C
12%
9°C
13%
10°C
14%
11°C
30%
12°C
33%
13°C
21%
14°C
14%
15°C or higher
13%
11°C 45%
12°C 33%
5°C or below 31%
6°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
5°C or below
$100 Vol.
31%
6°C
$25 Vol.
30%
7°C
$25 Vol.
10%
8°C
$41 Vol.
12%
9°C
$0 Vol.
13%
10°C
$0 Vol.
14%
11°C
$196 Vol.
30%
12°C
$308 Vol.
33%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
14%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and European model guidance points to overnight lows of 11–14°C in London on September 10, driven by a ridge of high pressure bringing light winds and variable cloud that allows moderate radiative cooling. Clearer spells favor the lower end near 11–12°C, while increased cloud or a slight uptick in southwesterly flow could hold minima closer to 13°C. These values align with the long-term September average low of roughly 12°C at Heathrow. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 11°C and 12°C because ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the date, with resolution depending on the official minimum recorded at the designated London station. Updated model runs overnight and on the 9th will be the next key inputs for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$695End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and European model guidance points to overnight lows of 11–14°C in London on September 10, driven by a ridge of high pressure bringing light winds and variable cloud that allows moderate radiative cooling. Clearer spells favor the lower end near 11–12°C, while increased cloud or a slight uptick in southwesterly flow could hold minima closer to 13°C. These values align with the long-term September average low of roughly 12°C at Heathrow. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 11°C and 12°C because ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the date, with resolution depending on the official minimum recorded at the designated London station. Updated model runs overnight and on the 9th will be the next key inputs for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$695End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office and European model guidance points to overnight lows of 11–14°C in London on September 10, driven by a ridge of high pressure bringing light winds and variable cloud that allows moderate radiative cooling. Clearer spells favor the lower end near 11–12°C, while increased cloud or a slight uptick in southwesterly flow could hold minima closer to 13°C. These values align with the long-term September average low of roughly 12°C at Heathrow. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 11°C and 12°C because ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the date, with resolution depending on the official minimum recorded at the designated London station. Updated model runs overnight and on the 9th will be the next key inputs for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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