Recent NOAA and National Weather Service ensemble forecasts for downtown Los Angeles on September 8 point to a highest temperature in the mid-80s, with 84–87°F ranges commanding over 47% combined implied probability due to moderate onshore flow and a persistent marine layer moderating coastal heating. Model consensus shows a strong high-pressure ridge offshore limiting extreme warming, though slight differences in the depth of the inversion and afternoon sea-breeze timing create the tight spread between 84–85°F and 86–87°F outcomes. Historical September baselines average 81–84°F, so current guidance reflects modestly above-normal conditions without strong offshore winds or heat-wave signals. Updated model runs and afternoon observations over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on September 8?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 8?
84-85°F 27%
86-87°F 22%
80-81°F 15%
78-79°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
73°F or below
7%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
15%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
14%
90-91°F
4%
92°F or higher
9%
84-85°F 27%
86-87°F 22%
80-81°F 15%
78-79°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
7%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
7%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
7%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
14%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
15%
82-83°F
$9 Vol.
11%
84-85°F
$88 Vol.
27%
86-87°F
$37 Vol.
22%
88-89°F
$11 Vol.
14%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
4%
92°F or higher
$98 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NOAA and National Weather Service ensemble forecasts for downtown Los Angeles on September 8 point to a highest temperature in the mid-80s, with 84–87°F ranges commanding over 47% combined implied probability due to moderate onshore flow and a persistent marine layer moderating coastal heating. Model consensus shows a strong high-pressure ridge offshore limiting extreme warming, though slight differences in the depth of the inversion and afternoon sea-breeze timing create the tight spread between 84–85°F and 86–87°F outcomes. Historical September baselines average 81–84°F, so current guidance reflects modestly above-normal conditions without strong offshore winds or heat-wave signals. Updated model runs and afternoon observations over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$242End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NOAA and National Weather Service ensemble forecasts for downtown Los Angeles on September 8 point to a highest temperature in the mid-80s, with 84–87°F ranges commanding over 47% combined implied probability due to moderate onshore flow and a persistent marine layer moderating coastal heating. Model consensus shows a strong high-pressure ridge offshore limiting extreme warming, though slight differences in the depth of the inversion and afternoon sea-breeze timing create the tight spread between 84–85°F and 86–87°F outcomes. Historical September baselines average 81–84°F, so current guidance reflects modestly above-normal conditions without strong offshore winds or heat-wave signals. Updated model runs and afternoon observations over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$242End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NOAA and National Weather Service ensemble forecasts for downtown Los Angeles on September 8 point to a highest temperature in the mid-80s, with 84–87°F ranges commanding over 47% combined implied probability due to moderate onshore flow and a persistent marine layer moderating coastal heating. Model consensus shows a strong high-pressure ridge offshore limiting extreme warming, though slight differences in the depth of the inversion and afternoon sea-breeze timing create the tight spread between 84–85°F and 86–87°F outcomes. Historical September baselines average 81–84°F, so current guidance reflects modestly above-normal conditions without strong offshore winds or heat-wave signals. Updated model runs and afternoon observations over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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