Recent cold front advection has lowered temperatures across São Paulo, with observed minima near 9–12°C on September 6–7, creating the primary driver behind the spread in market-implied odds for the September 8 minimum. Ensemble forecasts show divergence in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow, with some guidance holding lows near 9–11°C while others project recovery to 13–16°C as warmer air returns. Historical September baselines place typical minima around 14°C, but the current anomaly and model spread sustain balanced trader consensus across the 10–13°C bins alongside elevated probability on warmer outcomes. Updated runs from regional models will refine steering patterns and boundary-layer conditions ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 8?
14°C 48%
12°C 29%
11°C 27%
10°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
7°C or below
21%
8°C
19%
9°C
24%
10°C
25%
11°C
27%
12°C
29%
13°C
25%
14°C
48%
15°C
20%
16°C
19%
17°C or higher
21%
14°C 48%
12°C 29%
11°C 27%
10°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
21%
8°C
$0 Vol.
19%
9°C
$0 Vol.
24%
10°C
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$0 Vol.
29%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
48%
15°C
$0 Vol.
20%
16°C
$0 Vol.
19%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold front advection has lowered temperatures across São Paulo, with observed minima near 9–12°C on September 6–7, creating the primary driver behind the spread in market-implied odds for the September 8 minimum. Ensemble forecasts show divergence in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow, with some guidance holding lows near 9–11°C while others project recovery to 13–16°C as warmer air returns. Historical September baselines place typical minima around 14°C, but the current anomaly and model spread sustain balanced trader consensus across the 10–13°C bins alongside elevated probability on warmer outcomes. Updated runs from regional models will refine steering patterns and boundary-layer conditions ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold front advection has lowered temperatures across São Paulo, with observed minima near 9–12°C on September 6–7, creating the primary driver behind the spread in market-implied odds for the September 8 minimum. Ensemble forecasts show divergence in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow, with some guidance holding lows near 9–11°C while others project recovery to 13–16°C as warmer air returns. Historical September baselines place typical minima around 14°C, but the current anomaly and model spread sustain balanced trader consensus across the 10–13°C bins alongside elevated probability on warmer outcomes. Updated runs from regional models will refine steering patterns and boundary-layer conditions ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cold front advection has lowered temperatures across São Paulo, with observed minima near 9–12°C on September 6–7, creating the primary driver behind the spread in market-implied odds for the September 8 minimum. Ensemble forecasts show divergence in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow, with some guidance holding lows near 9–11°C while others project recovery to 13–16°C as warmer air returns. Historical September baselines place typical minima around 14°C, but the current anomaly and model spread sustain balanced trader consensus across the 10–13°C bins alongside elevated probability on warmer outcomes. Updated runs from regional models will refine steering patterns and boundary-layer conditions ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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