Forecast models from the Met Office and other sources point to a minimum temperature of 11–12°C in London on September 18, driven by clear or partly cloudy skies overnight that promote radiative cooling under light to moderate southwesterly winds. Recent clearing after showers on the 17th has allowed temperatures to drop toward these levels, consistent with typical early-autumn conditions where Atlantic air masses moderate extremes but clear nights enable dips below daytime averages of 20–21°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 12°C (59.5% implied probability) and 11°C (27.0%), while lower or higher outcomes remain unlikely absent rapid shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns before dawn. Updated model runs overnight will refine resolution criteria for the day's recorded low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 18?
Lowest temperature in London on September 18?
12°C 60%
11°C 27%
13°C 15%
10°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
3%
11°C
27%
12°C
60%
13°C
15%
14°C
3%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
12°C 60%
11°C 27%
13°C 15%
10°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
6°C or below
$41 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$41 Vol.
1%
9°C
$172 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$46 Vol.
3%
11°C
$1,420 Vol.
27%
12°C
$1,739 Vol.
60%
13°C
$471 Vol.
15%
14°C
$0 Vol.
3%
15°C
$41 Vol.
1%
16°C or higher
$46 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Met Office and other sources point to a minimum temperature of 11–12°C in London on September 18, driven by clear or partly cloudy skies overnight that promote radiative cooling under light to moderate southwesterly winds. Recent clearing after showers on the 17th has allowed temperatures to drop toward these levels, consistent with typical early-autumn conditions where Atlantic air masses moderate extremes but clear nights enable dips below daytime averages of 20–21°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 12°C (59.5% implied probability) and 11°C (27.0%), while lower or higher outcomes remain unlikely absent rapid shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns before dawn. Updated model runs overnight will refine resolution criteria for the day's recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,057End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Met Office and other sources point to a minimum temperature of 11–12°C in London on September 18, driven by clear or partly cloudy skies overnight that promote radiative cooling under light to moderate southwesterly winds. Recent clearing after showers on the 17th has allowed temperatures to drop toward these levels, consistent with typical early-autumn conditions where Atlantic air masses moderate extremes but clear nights enable dips below daytime averages of 20–21°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 12°C (59.5% implied probability) and 11°C (27.0%), while lower or higher outcomes remain unlikely absent rapid shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns before dawn. Updated model runs overnight will refine resolution criteria for the day's recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,057End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Met Office and other sources point to a minimum temperature of 11–12°C in London on September 18, driven by clear or partly cloudy skies overnight that promote radiative cooling under light to moderate southwesterly winds. Recent clearing after showers on the 17th has allowed temperatures to drop toward these levels, consistent with typical early-autumn conditions where Atlantic air masses moderate extremes but clear nights enable dips below daytime averages of 20–21°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 12°C (59.5% implied probability) and 11°C (27.0%), while lower or higher outcomes remain unlikely absent rapid shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns before dawn. Updated model runs overnight will refine resolution criteria for the day's recorded low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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