**Forecast models from agencies like the Met Office point to a minimum around 10–11°C for London on September 17, yet market-implied odds favor 14°C (51.5%) and 15°C (34.5%).** Mild southwesterly winds, high humidity, and increasing cloud cover ahead of a weak frontal system are limiting radiative cooling overnight, while light rain expected during the morning further moderates the diurnal range. These conditions align with recent ensemble guidance showing reduced overnight drops compared to clearer autumn nights. Traders appear to weigh model uncertainty and potential steering-pattern shifts that could keep readings closer to seasonal norms near 13–15°C, with resolution hinging on the precise overnight minimum recorded at the designated station. Updated NWP runs and official briefings in the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 17?
Lowest temperature in London on September 17?
14°C 52%
15°C 30%
12°C 9%
13°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
10°C or below
2%
11°C
3%
12°C
9%
13°C
6%
14°C
52%
15°C
30%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
1%
14°C 52%
15°C 30%
12°C 9%
13°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
11°C
$0 Vol.
3%
12°C
$52 Vol.
9%
13°C
$597 Vol.
6%
14°C
$1,181 Vol.
52%
15°C
$1,241 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from agencies like the Met Office point to a minimum around 10–11°C for London on September 17, yet market-implied odds favor 14°C (51.5%) and 15°C (34.5%).** Mild southwesterly winds, high humidity, and increasing cloud cover ahead of a weak frontal system are limiting radiative cooling overnight, while light rain expected during the morning further moderates the diurnal range. These conditions align with recent ensemble guidance showing reduced overnight drops compared to clearer autumn nights. Traders appear to weigh model uncertainty and potential steering-pattern shifts that could keep readings closer to seasonal norms near 13–15°C, with resolution hinging on the precise overnight minimum recorded at the designated station. Updated NWP runs and official briefings in the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,070End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from agencies like the Met Office point to a minimum around 10–11°C for London on September 17, yet market-implied odds favor 14°C (51.5%) and 15°C (34.5%).** Mild southwesterly winds, high humidity, and increasing cloud cover ahead of a weak frontal system are limiting radiative cooling overnight, while light rain expected during the morning further moderates the diurnal range. These conditions align with recent ensemble guidance showing reduced overnight drops compared to clearer autumn nights. Traders appear to weigh model uncertainty and potential steering-pattern shifts that could keep readings closer to seasonal norms near 13–15°C, with resolution hinging on the precise overnight minimum recorded at the designated station. Updated NWP runs and official briefings in the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,070End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from agencies like the Met Office point to a minimum around 10–11°C for London on September 17, yet market-implied odds favor 14°C (51.5%) and 15°C (34.5%).** Mild southwesterly winds, high humidity, and increasing cloud cover ahead of a weak frontal system are limiting radiative cooling overnight, while light rain expected during the morning further moderates the diurnal range. These conditions align with recent ensemble guidance showing reduced overnight drops compared to clearer autumn nights. Traders appear to weigh model uncertainty and potential steering-pattern shifts that could keep readings closer to seasonal norms near 13–15°C, with resolution hinging on the precise overnight minimum recorded at the designated station. Updated NWP runs and official briefings in the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions